A New Approach to Forecasting Exchange Rates
AbstractBuilding on purchasing power parity theory, this paper proposes a new approach to forecasting exchange rates using the Big Mac data from The Economist magazine. Our approach is attractive in three aspects. Firstly, it uses easily-available Big Mac prices as input. These prices avoid several serious problems associated with broad price indexes, such as the CPI, that are used in conventional PPP studies. Secondly, this approach provides real-time exchange-rate forecasts at any forecast horizon. Such real-time forecasts can be made on a day-to-day basis if required, so that the forecasts are based on the most up-to-date information set. These high-frequency forecasts could be particularly appealing to decision makers who want up-to-date forecasts of exchange rates. Finally, as our forecasts are obtained through Monte Carlo simulation, estimation uncertainty is made explicit in our framework which provides the entire distribution of exchange rates, not just a single point estimate. A comparison of our forecasts with the random walk model shows that although the random walk is superior for very short horizons, our approach tends to dominate over the medium to longer term.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics in its series Economics Discussion / Working Papers with number 06-29.
Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: 2006
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: 35 Stirling Highway, Crawley, W.A. 6009
Phone: (08) 9380 2918
Fax: (08) 9380 1016
Web page: http://www.business.uwa.edu.au/school/disciplines/economics
More information through EDIRC
Exchange-rate forecasting; Bic Mac prices; purchasing power parity; Monte Carlo simulation;
Other versions of this item:
- F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2007-05-12 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2007-05-12 (Central Banking)
- NEP-FOR-2007-05-12 (Forecasting)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Abhyankar, Abhay & Sarno, Lucio & Valente, Giorgio, 2004.
"Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence on the Economic Value of Predictability,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
4365, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Abhyankar, Abhay & Sarno, Lucio & Valente, Giorgio, 2005. "Exchange rates and fundamentals: evidence on the economic value of predictability," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 325-348, July.
- Giorgio Valente & Lucio Sarno & Abhay Abhayankar, 2004. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence on the Economic Value of Predictability," Working Papers wp04-01, Warwick Business School, Financial Econometrics Research Centre.
- O'Connell, Paul G. J., 1998. "The overvaluation of purchasing power parity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 1-19, February.
- Kiviet, Jan F. & Phillips, Garry D. A. & Schipp, Bernhard, 1999. "Alternative bias approximations in first-order dynamic reduced form models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 23(7), pages 909-928, June.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002.
"Comparing Predictive Accuracy,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-44, January.
- Menzie Chinn & Jeffery Frankel, 1995. "More survey data on exchange rate expectations: More currencies, more horizons, more tests," International Finance 9508003, EconWPA.
- Mark Taylor, 2006. "Real exchange rates and Purchasing Power Parity: mean-reversion in economic thought," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 16(1-2), pages 1-17.
- Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
- Charles Engel & Nelson C. Mark & Kenneth D. West, 2008.
"Exchange Rate Models Are Not As Bad As You Think,"
in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2007, Volume 22, pages 381-441
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Taylor, Alan & Taylor, Mark, 2004.
"The Purchasing Power Parity Debate,"
04-6, University of California at Davis, Department of Economics.
- Alan Taylor & Mark Taylor, 2004. "The Purchasing Power Parity Debate," Working Papers 46, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
- Taylor, Alan M & Taylor, Mark P, 2004. "The Purchasing Power Parity Debate," CEPR Discussion Papers 4495, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Alan M. Taylor & Mark P. Taylor, 2004. "The Purchasing Power Parity Debate," NBER Working Papers 10607, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Qi, Min & Wu, Yangru, 2003. "Nonlinear prediction of exchange rates with monetary fundamentals," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(5), pages 623-640, December.
- Bewley, R. & Fiebig, D.G., 1989.
"Why Are Long-Run Parameter Estimates So Disparate?,"
89-3, New South Wales - School of Economics.
- Bewley, Ronald & Fiebig, Denzil G, 1990. "Why Are Long-run Parameter Estimates So Disparate?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(2), pages 345-49, May.
- Marcos Álvarez-Díaz & Alberto Álvarez, 2005. "Genetic multi-model composite forecast for non-linear prediction of exchange rates," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 643-663, October.
- Froot, Kenneth A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995.
"Perspectives on PPP and long-run real exchange rates,"
Handbook of International Economics,
in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 32, pages 1647-1688
- Kenneth A. Froot & Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "Perspectives on PPP and Long-Run Real Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 4952, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lucio Sarno & Mark P. Taylor, 2002.
"Purchasing Power Parity and the Real Exchange Rate,"
IMF Staff Papers,
Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(1), pages 5.
- Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P, 2001. "Purchasing Power Parity and the Real Exchange Rate," CEPR Discussion Papers 2913, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Kenneth F. Wallis, 1999. "Asymmetric density forecasts of inflation and the Bank of England's fan chart," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 167(1), pages 106-112, January.
- Kenneth W Clements & Yihui Lan & Shi Pei Seah, 2010.
"The Big Mac Index Two Decades On An Evaluation Of Burgernomics,"
Economics Discussion / Working Papers
10-14, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
- Kenneth W. Clements & Yihui Lan & Shi Pei Seah, 2012. "The Big Mac Index two decades on: an evaluation of burgernomics," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(1), pages 31-60, 01.
- Parsley, David & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2004.
"A Prism into the PPP Puzzles: The Micro-Foundations of Big Mac Real Exchange Rates,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
4486, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- DavidC. Parsley & Shang-Jin Wei, 2007. "A Prism into the PPP Puzzles: The Micro-Foundations of Big Mac Real Exchange Rates," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 117(523), pages 1336-1356, October.
- David C. Parsley & Shang-Jin Wei, 2003. "A Prism into the PPP Puzzles: The Micro-foundations of Big Mac Real Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 10074, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Robert E. Cumby, 1996. "Forecasting Exchange Rates and Relative Prices with the Hamburger Standard: Is What You Want What You Get With McParity?," NBER Working Papers 5675, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kiviet, Jan F. & Phillips, Garry D. A. & Schipp, Bernhard, 1995. "The bias of OLS, GLS, and ZEF estimators in dynamic seemingly unrelated regression models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 241-266, September.
- repec:ebl:ecbull:v:6:y:2007:i:16:p:1-15 is not listed on IDEAS
- Lai, Kon S., 1990. "An evaluation of survey exchange rate forecasts," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 61-65, January.
- Andrew Parkes & Andreas Savvides, 1999. "Purchasing power parity in the long run and structural breaks: evidence from real sterling exchange rates," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 9(2), pages 117-127.
- Zellner, Arnold, 1978. "Estimation of functions of population means and regression coefficients including structural coefficients : A minimum expected loss (MELO) approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 127-158, October.
- Ong, Li Lian, 1997. "Burgernomics: the economics of the Big Mac standard," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(6), pages 865-878, December.
- Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
- Fernandez-Rodriguez, Fernando & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon & Andrada-Felix, Julian, 1999. "Exchange-rate forecasts with simultaneous nearest-neighbour methods: evidence from the EMS," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 383-392, October.
- Zhang, Gioqinang & Hu, Michael Y., 1998. "Neural network forecasting of the British Pound/US Dollar exchange rate," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 495-506, August.
- Chinn, Menzie & Frankel, Jeffrey, 1994. "Patterns in Exchange Rate Forecasts for Twenty-five Currencies," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 26(4), pages 759-70, November.
- Clements, Kenneth & Lan, Yihui & Roberts, John, 2008.
"Exchange-rate economics for the resources sector,"
Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 102-117, June.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Brendan Doran).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.