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How Long is the Long Run? Evidence from the Foreign Exchange Market

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Author Info
Kenneth W. Clements () (Department of Economics, The University of Western Australia)
Yihui Lan () (Department of Economics, The University of Western Australia)
Abstract

The aim of this paper is to estimate the length of the long run in the foreign exchange market. We do this by examining the link between exchange rates and relative prices, based on the implications of purchasing power parity (PPP) theory. Using a new approach, we test if the ratios of variances of exchange rates to prices are unity over all horizons, as implied by PPP. Through Monte Carlo simulations, we derive the variance ratios under the null of equal variances and examine the power and size of the test. We find evidence that PPP holds in the long run. While the long run based on the consumer prices appears to be “long”, about five years, the estimate of the long run based on the single good, Big Macs, is shorter (two years).

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File URL: http://www.biz.uwa.edu.au/home/research/discussionworking_papers/economics/2005?f=148858
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Paper provided by The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics in its series Economics Discussion / Working Papers with number 05-03.

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Length: 15 pages
Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:uwa:wpaper:05-03

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  1. Alan M. Taylor & Mark P. Taylor, 2004. "The Purchasing Power Parity Debate," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(4), pages 135-158, Fall. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Robert E. Cumby, 1996. "Forecasting Exchange Rates and Relative Prices with the Hamburger Standard: Is What You Want What You Get With McParity?," NBER Working Papers 5675, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Meese, Richard, 1990. "Currency Fluctuations in the Post-Bretton Woods Era," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 117-34, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Manzur, Meher, 1990. "An international comparison of prices and exchange rates: a new test of purchasing power parity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 75-91, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Lothian, James R, 1985. "Equilibrium Relationships between Money and Other Economic Variables," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(4), pages 828-35, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Mark P. Taylor & Lucio Sarno, 2004. "International real interest rate differentials, purchasing power parity and the behaviour of real exchange rates: the resolution of a conundrum," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(1), pages 15-23. [Downloadable!]
  9. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. David C. Parsley & Shang-Jin Wei, 2003. "A Prism into the PPP Puzzles: The Micro-foundations of Big Mac Real Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 10074, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Mussa, M.L., 1990. "Exchange Rates in Theory and in Reality," Princeton Studies in International Economics 179, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
  12. Jeffrey A. Frankel and Andrew K. Rose., 1995. "A Survey of Empirical Research on Nominal Exchange Rates," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C95-051, University of California at Berkeley.
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  13. Froot, Kenneth A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Perspectives on PPP and long-run real exchange rates," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 32, pages 1647-1688 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Cochrane, John H, 1988. "How Big Is the Random Walk in GNP?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(5), pages 893-920, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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