Real exchange rate forecasting: a calibrated half-life PPP model can beat the random walk
AbstractThis paper brings two new insights into the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) debate. First, even if PPP is thought to hold only in the long run, we show that a half-life PPP model outperforms the random walk in real exchange rate forecasting, also at short-term horizons. Second, we show that this result holds as long as the speed of adjustment to the sample mean is imposed and not estimated. The reason is that the estimation error of the pace of convergence distorts the results in favor of the random walk model, even if the PPP holds in the long-run.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute in its series National Bank of Poland Working Papers with number 123.
Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: 00-919 Warszawa ul. Świętokrzyska 11/21
Phone: (0-22) 653 10 00
Fax: (0-22) 620 85 18
Web page: http://www.nbp.pl/Homen.aspx?f=en/publikacje/materialy_i_studia/informacja_en.html
More information through EDIRC
Exchange rate forecasting; purchasing power parity; half-life;
Other versions of this item:
- Ca' Zorzi, Michele & Muck, Jakub & Rubaszek, Michał, 2013. "Real exchange rate forecasting: a calibrated half-life PPP model can beat the random walk," Working Paper Series 1576, European Central Bank.
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
- F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-10-27 (All new papers)
- NEP-FOR-2012-10-27 (Forecasting)
- NEP-MON-2012-10-27 (Monetary Economics)
- NEP-OPM-2012-10-27 (Open Economy Macroeconomics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995.
"Comparing Predictive Accuracy,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-63, July.
- Francis X. Diebold & Robert S. Mariano, 1994. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," NBER Technical Working Papers 0169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Tom Doan, . "DMARIANO: RATS procedure to compute Diebold-Mariano Forecast Comparison Test," Statistical Software Components RTS00055, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Jon Faust & John H. Rogers & Jonathan H. Wright, 2001.
"Exchange rate forecasting: the errors we've really made,"
International Finance Discussion Papers
714, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Faust, Jon & Rogers, John H. & H. Wright, Jonathan, 2003. "Exchange rate forecasting: the errors we've really made," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 35-59, May.
- Efthymios G. Pavlidis & Ivan Paya & David A. Peel, 2012. "Forecast Evaluation of Nonlinear Models: The Case of Long‐Span Real Exchange Rates," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(7), pages 580-595, November.
- Nelson Mark & Donggyu Sul, 1998.
"Norminal Exchange Rates and Monetary Fundamentals: Evidence from a Small Post-Bretton Woods Panel,"
98-19, Ohio State University, Department of Economics.
- Mark, Nelson C. & Sul, Donggyu, 2001. "Nominal exchange rates and monetary fundamentals: Evidence from a small post-Bretton woods panel," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 29-52, February.
- Norman, Stephen, 2010. "How well does nonlinear mean reversion solve the PPP puzzle?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 919-937, September.
- Chinn, Menzie D. & Meese, Richard A., 1995. "Banking on currency forecasts: How predictable is change in money?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1-2), pages 161-178, February.
- López-Suárez, Carlos Felipe & Rodríguez-López, José Antonio, 2011.
"Nonlinear exchange rate predictability,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 877-895, September.
- Mark, Nelson C. & Choi, Doo-Yull, 1997. "Real exchange-rate prediction over long horizons," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1-2), pages 29-60, August.
- Barbara Rossi, 2005.
"Are Exchange Rates Really Random Walks? Some Evidence Robust to Parameter Instability,"
- Rossi, Barbara, 2006. "Are Exchange Rates Really Random Walks? Some Evidence Robust To Parameter Instability," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(01), pages 20-38, February.
- Barbara Rossi, 2005. "Are Exchange Rates Really Random Walks? Some Evidence Robust to Parameter Instability," International Finance 0503006, EconWPA.
- Lutz Kilian & Tao Zha, 2002. "Quantifying the uncertainty about the half-life of deviations from PPP," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(2), pages 107-125.
- Alan M. Taylor & Mark P. Taylor, 2004.
"The Purchasing Power Parity Debate,"
Journal of Economic Perspectives,
American Economic Association, vol. 18(4), pages 135-158, Fall.
- Alan M. Taylor & Mark Taylor, 2004. "The Purchasing Power Parity Debate," Working Papers 46, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
- Taylor, Alan M & Taylor, Mark P, 2004. "The Purchasing Power Parity Debate," CEPR Discussion Papers 4495, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Alan M. Taylor & Mark P. Taylor, 2004. "The Purchasing Power Parity Debate," NBER Working Papers 10607, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Murray, Christian J. & Papell, David H., 2002.
"The purchasing power parity persistence paradigm,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 1-19, January.
- Christian J. Murray & David H. Papell, 2000. "The Purchasing Power Parity Persistence Paradigm," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0017, Econometric Society.
- John C. Robertson & Ellis W. Tallman, 1999. "Vector autoregressions: forecasting and reality," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q1, pages 4-18.
- Mark, Nelson C, 1995. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence on Long-Horizon Predictability," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 201-18, March.
- Michele Ca'Zorzi & Alexander Chudik, 2013.
"Spatial considerations on the PPP debate,"
Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper
138, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ewa Szymecka).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.