Real exchange rate forecasting: a calibrated half-life PPP model can beat the random walk
AbstractThis paper brings three new insights into the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) debate. First, we show that a half-life PPP model is able to forecast real exchange rates (RER) better than the random walk (RW) model at both short and long-term horizons. Secondly, we find that this result holds only if the speed of adjustment to the sample mean is calibrated at reasonable values rather than estimated. Finally, we find that it is also preferable to calibrate, rather than to elicit as a prior, the parameter determining the speed of adjustment to PPP. JEL Classification: C32, F31, F37
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Date of creation: Aug 2013
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Other versions of this item:
- Michele Ca’ Zorzi & Michal Rubaszek, 2012. "Real exchange rate forecasting: a calibrated half-life PPP model can beat the random walk," National Bank of Poland Working Papers 123, National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute.
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
- F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-08-23 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2013-08-23 (Central Banking)
- NEP-FOR-2013-08-23 (Forecasting)
- NEP-MON-2013-08-23 (Monetary Economics)
- NEP-OPM-2013-08-23 (Open Economy Macroeconomics)
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