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Are Option-Implied Forecasts of Exchange Rate Volatility Excessively Variable?

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  • Shang-Jin Wei
  • Jeffrey A. Frankel

Abstract

Market participants' forecasts of future exchange rate volatility can be recovered from option contracts on foreign currencies. Such implicit volatility forecasts for four currencies are used to test rational expectations jointly with the applicability of the standard Black-Scholes formula. First, we examine the null hypothesis that the market-anticipated one-month-ahead standard deviation is an unbiased estimator of the subsequent realized standard deviation. The parametric regression method rejects this hypothesis overwhelmingly: the implicit forecasts are themselves excessively variable. Simulations indicate that the rejection is not caused by non-normality of the error term. Second, we use a nonparametric method to test a weaker version of market rationality: the market can correctly forecast the direction of the change in exchange rate volatility. This time, the weaker version of rationality is confirmed- Third, we investigate how market forecasts are formed. We find some evidence that market participants put heavy weight on lagged volatility when forecasting future volatility. Finally, results from the Alternating Conditional Expectations algorithm provide further support for the central finding that when the market predicts a large deviation of volatility from its mean, it could do better by moderating its forecast.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 3910.

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Date of creation: Nov 1991
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3910

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  1. Ware, Roger & Winter, Ralph, 1988. "Forward markets, currency options and the hedging of foreign exchange risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3-4), pages 291-302, November.
  2. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
  3. Hsieh, David A., 1984. "Tests of rational expectations and no risk premium in forward exchange markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 173-184, August.
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  5. Boothe, Paul & Glassman, Debra, 1987. "The statistical distribution of exchange rates: Empirical evidence and economic implications," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3-4), pages 297-319, May.
  6. Kenneth A. Froot and Jeffrey A. Frankel., 1988. "Forward Discount Bias: Is It an Exchange Risk Premium?," Economics Working Papers, University of California at Berkeley 8874, University of California at Berkeley.
  7. Angelo Melino & Stuart M. Turnbull, 1991. "The Pricing of Foreign Currency Options," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 24(2), pages 251-81, May.
  8. Ralph Tryon, 1979. "Testing for rational expectations in foreign exchange markets," International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) 139, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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  10. Frankel, Jeff & Froot, Ken, 1986. "Using Survey Data to Test Standard Propositions Regarding Exchange Rate Expectations," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley qt1972q8wm, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
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  16. Hansen, Lars Peter & Hodrick, Robert J, 1980. "Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 829-53, October.
  17. Buttler, Hans-Jurg, 1989. "An expository note on the valuation of foreign exchange options," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 295-304, June.
  18. Merton, Robert C., 1977. "On the pricing of contingent claims and the Modigliani-Miller theorem," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 241-249, November.
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  20. Bodurtha, James N. & Courtadon, Georges R., 1987. "Tests of an American Option Pricing Model on the Foreign Currency Options Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(02), pages 153-167, June.
  21. Havenner, Arthur & Modjtahedi, Bagher, 1988. "Foreign exchange rates : A multiple currency and maturity analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 251-264, February.
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  23. Garman, Mark B. & Kohlhagen, Steven W., 1983. "Foreign currency option values," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 231-237, December.
  24. Lai, Kon S., 1990. "An evaluation of survey exchange rate forecasts," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 61-65, January.
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Cited by:
  1. Mende, Alexander, 2005. "09/11 on the USD/EUR Foreign Exchange Market," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-312, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
  2. Kroner, Kenneth F. & Kneafsey, Devin P. & Claessens, Stijn & DEC, 1993. "Forecasting volatility in commodity markets," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1226, The World Bank.
  3. Bronka Rzepkowski, 2001. "Pouvoir prédictif de la volatilité implicite dans le prix des options de change," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 148(2), pages 71-97.

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