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Overreactions in the Options Market

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 Stein, Jeremy

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Abstract

This paper examines the "term structure" of options' implied volatilities, using data on S&P 100 index options. Because implied volatility is strongly mean reverting, the implied volatility on a longer maturity option should move by less than one percent in response to a one percent move in the implied volatility of a shorter maturity option. Empirically, this elasticity turns out to be larger than suggested by rational expectations theory--long-maturity options tend to "overreact" to changes in the implied volatility of short-maturity options. Copyright 1989 by American Finance Association.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by American Finance Association in its journal Journal of Finance.

Volume (Year): 44 (1989)
Issue (Month): 4 (September)
Pages: 1011-23
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Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:44:y:1989:i:4:p:1011-23

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  1. Han, Bin, 2004. "Limits of Arbitrage, Sentiment and Pricing Kernal: Evidences from Index Options," Working Paper Series 2004-2, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. David S. Bates, 1997. "Post-'87 Crash Fears in S&P 500 Futures Options," NBER Working Papers 5894, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Nobuya Takezawa & Noriyoshi Shiraishi, 1998. "A Note on the Term Structure of Implied Volatilities for the Yen/U.S. Dollar Currency Option," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer, vol. 5(3), pages 227-236, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Pilar Corredor Casado & Rafael Santamaría, . "La estructura temporal de las volatilidades implícitas en la opción sobre el Ibex-35," Studies on the Spanish Economy 04, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
  5. Peter Klibanoff & Owen Lamont & Thierry A. Wizman, 1996. "Investor Reaction to Salient News in Closed-End Country Funds," NBER Working Papers 5588, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Chikashi Tsuji, 2006. "Overreactions in the options markets in Japan," Applied Financial Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 2(2), pages 115-121, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. David S. Bates, 1993. "Jumps and Stochastic Volatility: Exchange Rate Processes Implicit in thePHLX Deutschemark Options," NBER Working Papers 4596, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. He, Wei & Wei, Peihwang P., 2003. "Is overreaction an explanation for the value effect? A study using implied volatility from option prices," Working Papers 2003-11, University of New Orleans, Department of Economics and Finance. [Downloadable!]
  9. Nicolae Garleanu & Lasse Heje Pedersen & Allen M. Poteshman, 2005. "Demand-Based Option Pricing," NBER Working Papers 11843, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Owain Ap Gwilym, Mike Buckle, 1999. "Volatility forecasting in the framework of the option expiry cycle," European Journal of Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 73-94, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Jiang, G. & Sluis, P.J. van der, 2000. "Index option pricing models with stochastic volatility and stochastic interest rates," Discussion Paper 36, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  12. Shang-Jin Wei & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1991. "Are Option-Implied Forecasts of Exchange Rate Volatility Excessively Variable?," NBER Working Papers 3910, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Langer, Thomas & Waller, Peter, 1997. "Implementing Behavioral Concepts into Banking Theory: The Impact of Loss Aversion on Collateralization," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 97-33, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim & Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
  14. Yacine Ait-Sahalia & Robert Kimmel, 2004. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Stochastic Volatility Models," NBER Working Papers 10579, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Robert F. Engle & Joshua Rosenberg, 1998. "Testing the Volatility Term Structure using Option Hedging Criteria," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 98-031, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-. [Downloadable!]
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