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Wage Expectations in the Labor Market: Survey Evidence on Rationality

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  • Jonathan S. Leonard

Abstract

Using a new set of directly observed wage expectations among firms, this paper finds that in general firms' forecasts fail the unbiasedness and efficiency requirements of weak-form rational expectations. These market participants consistently underestimate the wages they actually end up paying, and their expectations do not efficiently utilize the information in past realizations. The mean absolute forecast error of two percent compares with an error of only five percent if static expectations were held. The major source of wage fore-cast error seems to be errors in predicting demand, rather than in predicting supply or the general price level. Wage forecast errors are positively correlated across fields with distinct supply patterns, and are positively correlated with quantity forecast error. The properties of stochastically weighted expectations and the effectiveness of the wage and price controls of the early 1970's are also discussed.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 0440.

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Date of creation: Feb 1980
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Publication status: published as Leonard, Jonathan S. "Wage Expectations in the Labor Market: Survey Evidence on Rationality." The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 64, No. 1, (February 1982), pp. 157-161.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:0440

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  1. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
  2. Turnovsky, Stephen J & Wachter, Michael L, 1972. "A Test of the "Expectations Hypothesis" Using Directly Observed Wage and Price Expectations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 54(1), pages 47-54, February.
  3. Barro, Robert J., 1978. "Unanticipated Money, Output, and the Price Level in the United States," Scholarly Articles 3450988, Harvard University Department of Economics.
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Cited by:
  1. Brunello, Giorgio & Lucifora, Claudio & Winter-Ebmer, Rudolf, 2001. "The Wage Expectations of European College Students," IZA Discussion Papers 299, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  2. Muzafar Shah Habibullah, 2005. "Do Bankers Make Rational Economic Forecasts?," The IUP Journal of Bank Management, IUP Publications, vol. 0(4), pages 7-15, November.
  3. Boum-Jong Choe, 1990. "Rational expectations and commodity price forecasts," Policy Research Working Paper Series 435, The World Bank.
  4. Feenberg, D.R. & Gentry, W. & Gilroy, D. & Rosen, H.S., 1988. "Testing The Rationality Of State Revenue Forecasts," Papers 16, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Discussion Paper.
  5. Das, J.W.M. & Dominitz, J. & Soest, A.H.O. van, 1998. "Comparing predictions and outcomes: theory and application to income changes," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-121742, Tilburg University.
  6. Lant, Theresa & Shapira, Zur, 2008. "Managerial reasoning about aspirations and expectations," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 60-73, April.
  7. Theresa Lant & Zur Shapira, 2009. "Managerial Reasoning about Aspirations and Expectations," Discussion Paper Series dp498, The Center for the Study of Rationality, Hebrew University, Jerusalem.
  8. Silva Lopes, Artur, 1994. "A "hipótese das expectativas racionais": teoria e realidade (uma visita guiada à literatura até 1992)
    [The "rational expectations hypothesis": theory and reality (a guided to
    ," MPRA Paper 9699, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Jul 2008.
  9. Hugo Benítez-Silva & Debra S. Dwyer, 2003. "What to Expect when you are Expecting Rationality: Testing Rational Expectations using Micro Data," Working Papers wp037, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
  10. Ludwig, Jens, 1999. "Information and inner city educational attainment," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 17-30, February.
  11. Felderer, Bernhard & Drost, André, 2000. "Cyclical Occupational Choice in a Model with Rational Wage Expectations and Perfect Occupational Mobility," Economics Series 81, Institute for Advanced Studies.
  12. Gunderson, Morley & Krashinsky, Harry, 2009. "Do Education Decisions Respond to Returns by Field of Study?," CLSSRN working papers clsrn_admin-2009-62, Vancouver School of Economics, revised 28 Nov 2009.

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