Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

An Evaluation of the Forecast Performance of Alternative Models of Inflation

Contents:

Author Info

  • Stockton, David J
  • Glassman, James E
Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    The forecast performances of three groups of models of the inflation process are evalu-ated in this paper: ra tional expectations models with instantaneous market clearing, monetarist models , and expectations-augmented Phillips curves. The dynamic simulations performed for the intervals between 1977 and 1984 are somewhat discouraging for all three theories. The variation in forecasting performance within model groups often exc eeded the variation in performance across model groups. Nevertheless, the Philli ps curve formulation rarely performed worse than the other two models, and in th e 1981 to 1984 period it performed substantially better than the alternative mod els of inflation. Copyright 1987 by MIT Press.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0034-6535%28198702%2969%3A1%3C108%3AAEOTFP%3E2.0.CO%3B2-V&origin=repec
    File Function: full text
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to JSTOR subscribers. See http://www.jstor.org for details.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by MIT Press in its journal Review of Economics & Statistics.

    Volume (Year): 69 (1987)
    Issue (Month): 1 (February)
    Pages: 108-17

    as in new window
    Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:69:y:1987:i:1:p:108-17

    Contact details of provider:
    Web page: http://mitpress.mit.edu/journals/

    Order Information:
    Web: http://mitpress.mit.edu/journal-home.tcl?issn=00346535

    Related research

    Keywords:

    References

    No references listed on IDEAS
    You can help add them by filling out this form.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as in new window

    Cited by:
    1. John W. Galbraith & Greg Tkacz, 2007. "How Far Can Forecasting Models Forecast? Forecast Content Horizons for Some Important Macroeconomic Variables," Working Papers 07-1, Bank of Canada.
    2. Feridun, Mete, 2006. "Forecasting Inflation in Developing Nations: The Case of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 1024, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2006.
    3. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert & Min Wei, 2006. "Do macro variables, asset markets, or surveys forecast inflation better?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2006-15, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Ben Smit & Stan du Plessis, 2001. "Inflation and the role of wages in South Africa: A co-integration analysis," Working Papers 01053, University of Cape Town, Development Policy Research Unit.
    5. Yash P. Mehra, 1989. "Wage growth and the inflation process: an empirical note," Working Paper 89-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    6. Silva Lopes, Artur, 1994. "A "hipótese das expectativas racionais": teoria e realidade (uma visita guiada à literatura até 1992)
      [The "rational expectations hypothesis": theory and reality (a guided to
      ," MPRA Paper 9699, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Jul 2008.
    7. Mazumder, Sandeep, 2011. "Cost-based Phillips Curve forecasts of inflation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 553-567.
    8. Yash P. Mehra, 2004. "Predicting the recent behavior of inflation using output gap-based Phillips curves," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 65-88.
    9. Gatt, William, 2013. "Forecasting inflation at the Central Bank of Malta�," MPRA Paper 56876, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Yash Mehra, 2000. "Wage-price dynamics : are they consistent with cost push?," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 27-43.
    11. Fofana, Abdulai & Toma, Luiza & Moran, Dominic & Gunn, George J. & Stott, Alistair W., 2009. "Measuring the economic benefits and costs of Bluetongue virus outbreak and control strategies in Scotland," 83rd Annual Conference, March 30-April 1, 2009, Dublin, Ireland 51052, Agricultural Economics Society.
    12. Kenny, Geoff & Meyler, Aidan & Quinn, Terry, 1998. "Forecasting Irish inflation using ARIMA models," Research Technical Papers 3/RT/98, Central Bank of Ireland.
    13. Yash P. Mehra, 1993. "Unit labor costs and the price level," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Fall, pages 35-52.
    14. John A. Tatom, 1990. "The P-star approach to the link between money and prices," Working Papers 1990-008, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    15. Luojia Hu & Maude Toussaint-Comeau, 2010. "Do labor market activities help predict inflation?," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q II, pages 52-63.
    16. Olesya V. Grishchenko & Joel M. Vanden & Jianing Zhang, 2013. "The informational content of the embedded deflation option in TIPS," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:69:y:1987:i:1:p:108-17. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Karie Kirkpatrick).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.