This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

An Evaluation of the Forecast Performance of Alternative Models of Inflation

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Stockton, David J
Glassman, James E
Abstract

The forecast performances of three groups of models of the inflation process are evalu-ated in this paper: ra tional expectations models with instantaneous market clearing, monetarist models , and expectations-augmented Phillips curves. The dynamic simulations performed for the intervals between 1977 and 1984 are somewhat discouraging for all three theories. The variation in forecasting performance within model groups often exc eeded the variation in performance across model groups. Nevertheless, the Philli ps curve formulation rarely performed worse than the other two models, and in th e 1981 to 1984 period it performed substantially better than the alternative mod els of inflation. Copyright 1987 by MIT Press.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0034-6535%28198702%2969%3A1%3C108%3AAEOTFP%3E2.0.CO%3B2-V&origin=repec
File Format: application/pdf
File Function: full text
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to JSTOR subscribers. See http://www.jstor.org for details.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Publisher Info
Article provided by MIT Press in its journal Review of Economics & Statistics.

Volume (Year): 69 (1987)
Issue (Month): 1 (February)
Pages: 108-17
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:69:y:1987:i:1:p:108-17

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://mitpress.mit.edu/journals/

Order Information:
Web: http://mitpress.mit.edu/journal-home.tcl?issn=00346535

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Christopher F. Baum).

Related research
Keywords:

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Fofana, Abdulai & Toma, Luiza & Moran, Dominic & Gunn, George J. & Stott, Alistair W., 2009. "Measuring the economic benefits and costs of Bluetongue virus outbreak and control strategies in Scotland," 83rd Annual Conference, March 30-April 1, 2009, Dublin, Ireland 51052, Agricultural Economics Society. [Downloadable!]
  2. Feridun, Mete, 2006. "Forecasting Inflation in Developing Nations: The Case of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 1024, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2006. [Downloadable!]
  3. Kenny, Geoff & Meyler, Aidan & Quinn, Terry, 1998. "Forecasting Irish inflation using ARIMA models," Research Technical Papers 3/RT/98, Central Bank & Financial Services Authority of Ireland (CBFSAI). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Yash P. Mehra, 1989. "Wage growth and the inflation process: an empirical note," Working Paper 89-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. [Downloadable!]
  5. Yash P. Mehra, 2004. "Predicting the recent behavior of inflation using output gap-based Phillips curves," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 65-88. [Downloadable!]
  6. John A. Tatom, 1990. "The P-star approach to the link between money and prices," Working Papers 1990-008, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  7. Yash Mehra, 2000. "Wage-price dynamics : are they consistent with cost push?," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 27-43. [Downloadable!]
  8. John W. Galbraith & Greg Tkacz, 2007. "How Far Can Forecasting Models Forecast? Forecast Content Horizons for Some Important Macroeconomic Variables," Working Papers 07-1, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  9. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert & Min Wei, 2006. "Do macro variables, asset markets, or surveys forecast inflation better?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2006-15, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Yash P. Mehra, 1993. "Unit labor costs and the price level," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Fall, pages 35-52. [Downloadable!]
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? All the bibliographic data shown here has been contributed by volunteers, thereby helping to keep this service free.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-16.


This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.