The Response of Interest Rates to the Federal Reserve's Weekly Money Announcements: The "Puzzle" of Anticipated Money
AbstractResearchers, using the survey conducted by Money Market Services, Inc., have found that the anticipated component in the Federal Reserve's weekly money supply announcement is negatively correlated with the post- announcement change in market yields. We prove that eliminating a (downward) bias in the measure of anticipated money can, in theory, eliminate this puzzle, but that improving the efficiency of an already unbiased measure cannot. We find, using Canadian as well as U.S. interest rate data, that correcting the downward bias in the survey measure reduces, but does not eliminate, the role of anticipated money.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 2125.
Date of creation: Jan 1987
Date of revision:
Publication status: published as Deaves, Richard, Angelo Melino, and James E. Pesando. "The Response of Interest Rates to the Federal Reserve's Weekly Money Announcements: The "Puzzle" of Anticipated Money," Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 19, No. 3, May 1987, pp. 393-404.
Contact details of provider:
Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
Other versions of this item:
- Deaves, Richard & Melino, Angelo & Pesando, James E., 1987. "The response of interest rates to the Federal Reserve's weekly money announcements : The 'puzzle' of anticipated money," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 393-404, May.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Michael T. Belongia & R.W. Hafer & Richard G. Sheehan, 1986. "A note on the temporal stability of the interest rate-weekly money relationship," Working Papers 1986-002, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May.
- Breusch, T S & Pagan, A R, 1979. "A Simple Test for Heteroscedasticity and Random Coefficient Variation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(5), pages 1287-94, September.
- Pesando, James E, 1979. "On the Random Walk Characteristics of Short- and Long-Term Interest Rates in an Efficient Market," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(4), pages 457-66, November.
- Roley, V Vance & Walsh, Carl E, 1985.
"Monetary Policy Regimes, Expected Inflation, and the Response of Interest Rates to Money Announcements,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 100(5), pages 1011-39, Supp..
- V. Vance Roley & Carl E. Walsh, 1983. "Monetary Policy Regimes, Expected Inflation, and the Response of Interest Rates to Money Announcements," NBER Working Papers 1181, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Roley, V Vance, 1983. "The Response of Short-Term Interest Rates to Weekly Money Announcements," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 15(3), pages 344-54, August.
- V. Vance Roley, 1982. "The Response of Short-Term Interest Rates to Weekly Money Announcements," NBER Working Papers 1001, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Cornell, Bradford, 1983. "Money Supply Announcements and Interest Rates: Another View," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56(1), pages 1-23, January.
- Thomas Urich & Paul Wachtel, 1983. "The Structure of Expectations of the Weekly Money Supply Announcement," NBER Working Papers 1090, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hein, Scott E, 1985. "The Response of Short-term Interest Rates to Weekly Money Announcements: A Comment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 17(2), pages 264-71, May.
- Poole, William, 1988.
"Monetary Policy Lessons of Recent Inflation and Disinflation,"
Journal of Economic Perspectives,
American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 73-100, Summer.
- William Poole, 1987. "Monetary Policy Lessons of recent Inflation and Disinflation," NBER Working Papers 2300, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Peter C. Liu, 1994. "Are Money Announcement Forecasts Rational?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 56(4), pages 475-483, November.
- Silva Lopes, Artur, 1994.
"A "hipótese das expectativas racionais": teoria e realidade (uma visita guiada à literatura até 1992)
[The "rational expectations hypothesis": theory and reality (a guided to," MPRA Paper 9699, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Jul 2008.
- Richard G. Sheehan & R.W. Hafer, 1987. "On the response of interest rates to unexpected weekly money: are policy changes important?," Working Papers 1987-005, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Daniel L. Thornton, 1989. "Tests of covered interest rate parity," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 55-66.
- Deaves, Richard & Miu, Peter & Barry White, C., 2008. "Canadian stock market multiples and their predictive content," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 457-466.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.