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Distribution-Free Bounds for Serial Correlation Coefficients in Heteroskedastic Symmetric Time Series

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Author Info
DUFOUR, Jean-Marie
FARHAT, Abdekjelik
HALLIN, Marc

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Abstract

We consider the problem of testing whether the observations X1, ..., Xn of a time series are independent with unspecified (possibly nonidentical) distributions symmetric about a common known median. Various bounds on the distributions of serial correlation coefficients are proposed: exponential bounds, Eaton-type bounds, Chebyshev bounds and Berry-Esséen-Zolotarev bounds. The bounds are exact in finite samples, distribution-free and easy to compute. The performance of the bounds is evaluated and compared with traditional serial dependence tests in a simulation experiment. The procedures proposed are applied to U.S. data on interest rates (commercial paper rate).

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques in its series Cahiers de recherche with number 2005-05.

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Length: 43 pages
Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:mtl:montde:2005-05

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Related research
Keywords: autocorrelation ; serial dendence ; nonrametric test ; distribution-free test ; heterogeneity ; heteroskedasticity ; symmetric distribution ; robustness ; exact test ; bound ; exnential bound ; large deviations ; Chebyshev inequality ; Berry-Esséen ; interest rates.;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Hypothesis Testing
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates

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  1. Dufour, J.M. & Hallin, M., 1992. "Improved Eaton Bounds for Linear Combinations of Bounded Random Variables with Statistical Applications," Cahiers de recherche 9224, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
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  2. DUFOUR, Jean-Marie, 2003. "Identification, Weak Instruments and Statistical Inference in Econometrics," Cahiers de recherche 2003-12, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Dufour, Jean-Marie & King, Maxwell L., 1991. "Optimal invariant tests for the autocorrelation coefficient in linear regressions with stationary or nonstationary AR(1) errors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 115-143, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Dufour, J-M. & Hallin, M., 1990. "Simple Exact Bounds For Distributions Of Linear Signed Rank Statistics," Cahiers de recherche 9003, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
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  5. Dufour, Jean-Marie & Hallin, Marc, 1991. "Nonuniform Bounds for Nonparametric t-Tests," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(02), pages 253-263, June. [Downloadable!]
  6. Dufour, Jean-Marie, 1990. "Exact Tests and Confidence Sets in Linear Regressions with Autocorrelated Errors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(2), pages 475-94, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Campbell, Bryan & Dufour, Jean-Marie, 1997. "Exact Nonparametric Tests of Orthogonality and Random Walk in the Presence of a Drift Parameter," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(1), pages 151-73, February.
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  8. Dufour, J.M., 1981. "Rank Tests for Serial Dependence," Cahiers de recherche 8127, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
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  9. Jean-Marie Dufour & Jan F. Kiviet, 1998. "Exact Inference Methods for First-Order Autoregressive Distributed Lag Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 79-104, January.
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  10. Hallin, M. & Puri, M.L., 1992. "Rank Tests for Time Series Analysis , A Survey," Papers 9210, Universite Libre de Bruxelles - C.E.M.E..
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