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Abstract

We consider the problem of testing whether the observations X1, ..., Xn of a time series are independent with unspecified (possibly nonidentical) distributions symmetric about a common known median. Various bounds on the distributions of serial correlation coefficients are proposed: exponential bounds, Eaton-type bounds, Chebyshev bounds and Berry-Esséen-Zolotarev bounds. The bounds are exact in finite samples, distribution-free and easy to compute. The performance of the bounds is evaluated and compared with traditional serial dependence tests in a simulation experiment. The procedures proposed are applied to U.S. data on interest rates (commercial paper rate).

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/1866/534
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques in its series Cahiers de recherche with number 2005-05.

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Length: 43 pages
Date of creation: 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mtl:montde:2005-05

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Postal: CP 6128, Succ. Centre-Ville, Montréal, Québec, H3C 3J7
Phone: (514) 343-6540
Fax: (514) 343-5831
Web page: http://www.sceco.umontreal.ca
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Related research

Keywords: autocorrelation ; serial dendence ; nonrametric test ; distribution-free test ; heterogeneity ; heteroskedasticity ; symmetric distribution ; robustness ; exact test ; bound ; exnential bound ; large deviations ; Chebyshev inequality ; Berry-Esséen ; interest rates.;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:

• C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
• C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
• C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
• C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
• E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

• NEP-ALL-2005-04-16 (All new papers)
• NEP-ECM-2005-04-16 (Econometrics)
• NEP-ETS-2005-04-16 (Econometric Time Series)
• NEP-MAC-2005-04-16 (Macroeconomics)

References

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

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1. Jean-Marie Dufour, 2003. "Identification, weak instruments, and statistical inference in econometrics," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 36(4), pages 767-808, November.
   
   • Jean-Marie Dufour, 2003. "Identification, Weak Instruments and Statistical Inference in Econometrics," CIRANO Working Papers 2003s-49, CIRANO.
   • DUFOUR, Jean-Marie, 2003. "Identification, Weak Instruments and Statistical Inference in Econometrics," Cahiers de recherche 2003-12, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
2. Dufour, J.M. & Roy, R., 1984. "Some Robust Exact Results on Sample Autocorrelations and Tests of Randomness," Cahiers de recherche 8412, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
   
   • Dufour, Jean-Marie & Roy, Roch, 1985. "Some robust exact results on sample autocorrelations and tests of randomness," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 257-273, September.
3. repec:mtl:montec:10-2003 is not listed on IDEAS
4. Dufour, J.M., 1981. "Rank Tests for Serial Dependence," Cahiers de recherche 8127, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
   
   • Dufour, J.M., 1979. "Rank Tests for Serial Dependence," Cahiers de recherche 7815, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
5. Marc Hallin & Jean-Marie Dufour, 1991. "Nonuniform bounds for nonparametric t-tests," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/2027, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
   
   • Dufour, Jean-Marie & Hallin, Marc, 1991. "Nonuniform Bounds for Nonparametric t-Tests," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(02), pages 253-263, June.
6. Nathan Balke & Robert J. Gordon, 1986. "Appendix B Historical Data," NBER Chapters, in: The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, pages 781-850 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
7. Hallin, M. & Puri, M.L., 1992. "Rank Tests for Time Series Analysis , A Survey," Papers 9210, Universite Libre de Bruxelles - C.E.M.E..
   
   • Marc Hallin & Madan L. Puri, 1992. "Rank tests for time-series analysis: a survey," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/2229, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
8. Dufour, J.M. & Hallin, M., 1992. "Improved Eaton Bounds for Linear Combinations of Bounded Random Variables with Statistical Applications," Cahiers de recherche 9224, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
   
   • Marc Hallin & Jean-Marie Dufour, 1993. "Improved Eaton bounds for linear combinations of bounded random variables, with statistical applications," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/2043, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
   • Dufour, J.M. & Hallin, M., 1992. "Improved Eaton Bounds for Linear Combinations of Bounded Random Variables with Statistical Applications," Cahiers de recherche 9224, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
   • Dufour, J-M. & Hallin, M., 1990. "Improved Eaton Bounds for Linear Combinations of Bounded Random Variables , with Statistical Applications," Papers 9104, Universite Libre de Bruxelles - C.E.M.E..
9. Campbell, B. & Dufour, J.M., 1994. "Excat Nonparametric Tests of Orthogonality and Random Walk in the Presence of a Drift Parameter," Cahiers de recherche 9407, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
   
   • Campbell, Bryan & Dufour, Jean-Marie, 1997. "Exact Nonparametric Tests of Orthogonality and Random Walk in the Presence of a Drift Parameter," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(1), pages 151-73, February.
   • Campbell, B. & Dufour, J.M., 1994. "Excat Nonparametric Tests of Orthogonality and Random Walk in the Presence of a Drift Parameter," Cahiers de recherche 9407, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
10. Dufour, J.M. & Hallin, M., 1990. "Simple Exact Bounds for Distributions of Linear Signed Rank Statistics," Cahiers de recherche 9003, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    
    • Dufour, J-M. & Hallin, M., 1990. "Simple Exact Bounds For Distributions Of Linear Signed Rank Statistics," Cahiers de recherche 9003, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    • Marc Hallin & Jean-Marie Dufour, 1992. "Simple exact bounds for distributions of linear signed rank statistics," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/2033, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
11. Dufour, J.M. & Kiviet, J.F., 1995. "Exact Inference Methods for First-Order Autoregressive Distributed Lag Models," Cahiers de recherche 9547, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    
    • Jean-Marie Dufour & Jan F. Kiviet, 1998. "Exact Inference Methods for First-Order Autoregressive Distributed Lag Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 79-104, January.
    • Dufour, J.M. & Kiviet, J.F., 1995. "Exact Inference Methods for First-Order Autoregressive Distributed Lag Models," Cahiers de recherche 9547, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
12. Dufour, Jean-Marie & King, Maxwell L., 1991. "Optimal invariant tests for the autocorrelation coefficient in linear regressions with stationary or nonstationary AR(1) errors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 115-143, January.
13. Dufour, Jean-Marie, 1990. "Exact Tests and Confidence Sets in Linear Regressions with Autocorrelated Errors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(2), pages 475-94, March.

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