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Distribution-free bounds for serial correlation coefficients in heteroskedastic symmetric time series

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  • Dufour, Jean-Marie
  • Farhat, Abdeljelil
  • Hallin, Marc

Abstract

We consider the problem of testing whether the observations X1, ..., Xn of a time series are independent with unspecified (possibly nonidentical) distributions symmetric about a common known median. Various bounds on the distributions of serial correlation coefficients are proposed: exponential bounds, Eaton-type bounds, Chebyshev bounds and Berry-Esséen-Zolotarev bounds. The bounds are exact in finite samples, distribution-free and easy to compute. The performance of the bounds is evaluated and compared with traditional serial dependence tests in a simulation experiment. The procedures proposed are applied to U.S. data on interest rates (commercial paper rate).

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 130 (2006)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 123-142

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Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:130:y:2006:i:1:p:123-142

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jeconom

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References

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  1. Dufour, J.M., 1981. "Rank Tests for Serial Dependence," Cahiers de recherche 8127, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  2. Dufour, J-M. & Hallin, M., 1990. "Simple Exact Bounds For Distributions Of Linear Signed Rank Statistics," Cahiers de recherche 9003, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
  3. Campbell, B. & Dufour, J.M., 1994. "Excat Nonparametric Tests of Orthogonality and Random Walk in the Presence of a Drift Parameter," Cahiers de recherche 9407, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  4. DUFOUR, Jean-Marie, 2003. "Identification, Weak Instruments and Statistical Inference in Econometrics," Cahiers de recherche 2003-12, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  5. Dufour, J.M. & Kiviet, J.F., 1995. "Exact Inference Methods for First-Order Autoregressive Distributed Lag Models," Cahiers de recherche 9547, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
  6. Marc Hallin & Jean-Marie Dufour, 1991. "Nonuniform bounds for nonparametric t-tests," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/2027, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  7. Dufour, J.M. & Roy, R., 1984. "Some Robust Exact Results on Sample Autocorrelations and Tests of Randomness," Cahiers de recherche 8412, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  8. Marc Hallin & Jean-Marie Dufour, 1993. "Improved Eaton bounds for linear combinations of bounded random variables, with statistical applications," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/2043, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  9. DUFOUR, Jean-Marie, 2003. "Identification, Weak Instruments and Statistical Inference in Econometrics," Cahiers de recherche 10-2003, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
  10. Hallin, M. & Puri, M.L., 1992. "Rank Tests for Time Series Analysis , A Survey," Papers 9210, Universite Libre de Bruxelles - C.E.M.E..
  11. Nathan Balke & Robert J. Gordon, 1986. "Appendix B Historical Data," NBER Chapters, in: The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, pages 781-850 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Marc Hallin & Abdeljelil Farhat & Jean-Marie Dufour, 2006. "Distribution-free bounds for serial correlation coefficients in heteroskedastic symmetric time series," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/2143, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  13. Dufour, Jean-Marie & King, Maxwell L., 1991. "Optimal invariant tests for the autocorrelation coefficient in linear regressions with stationary or nonstationary AR(1) errors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 115-143, January.
  14. Dufour, J.-M., 1986. "Exact tests and confidence sets in linear regressions with autocorrelated errors," CORE Discussion Papers 1986037, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
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Cited by:
  1. Jean-Marie Dufour & Abdeljelil Farhat & Marc Hallin, 2005. "Distribution-Free Bounds for Serial Correlation Coefficients in Heteroskedastic Symmetric Time Series," CIRANO Working Papers 2005s-04, CIRANO.

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