IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wpa/wuwpfi/0307006.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Effect of Macroeconomic Factors on Asset Returns: A Comparative Analysis of the German and the Turkish Stock Markets in an APT Framework

Author

Listed:
  • Erdinc Altay

    (Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics)

Abstract

This paper uses factor analytic techniques for deriving factor realizations from a group of main economic indicators of both the German and the Turkish economy in order to test the effect of economic factors on asset returns in an APT framework. The factor structure of the German economy yields 4 factors, whereas the Turkish economy has only 3 factors even though the same economic indicators are employed in the factor analysis procedures. We found some evidence of the unexpected interest rate factor and the unexpected inflation factor beta coefficients having significant effects on asset returns of the German Stock Market. But we were not able to find any unexpected macroeconomic factor beta with a significant influence on asset returns in the Turkish Stock Market.

Suggested Citation

  • Erdinc Altay, 2003. "The Effect of Macroeconomic Factors on Asset Returns: A Comparative Analysis of the German and the Turkish Stock Markets in an APT Framework," Finance 0307006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpfi:0307006
    Note: Type of Document - Acrobat PDF; prepared on IBM PC ; to print on PostScript; pages: 36 ; figures: included
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de/econ-wp/fin/papers/0307/0307006.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. "The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-465, June.
    2. Stephen A. Ross, 2013. "The Arbitrage Theory of Capital Asset Pricing," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 1, pages 11-30, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Dhrymes, Phoebus J, et al, 1985. "New Tests of the APT and Their Implications," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 659-674, July.
    4. Beenstock, Michael & Chan, Kam-Fai, 1988. "Economic Forces in the London Stock Market," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 50(1), pages 27-39, February.
    5. Stambaugh, Robert F., 1983. "Arbitrage pricing with information," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 357-369, November.
    6. McCulloch, Robert & Rossi, Peter E., 1990. "Posterior, predictive, and utility-based approaches to testing the arbitrage pricing theory," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 7-38.
    7. Edwin J. Elton, 1999. "Presidential Address: Expected Return, Realized Return, and Asset Pricing Tests," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(4), pages 1199-1220, August.
    8. Roll, Richard, 1977. "A critique of the asset pricing theory's tests Part I: On past and potential testability of the theory," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 129-176, March.
    9. Roll, Richard & Ross, Stephen A, 1980. "An Empirical Investigation of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 35(5), pages 1073-1103, December.
    10. Ferson, Wayne E & Harvey, Campbell R, 1991. "The Variation of Economic Risk Premiums," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 385-415, April.
    11. Shanken, Jay, 1992. "On the Estimation of Beta-Pricing Models," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(1), pages 1-33.
    12. Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr, 1984. "Some Results in the Theory of Arbitrage Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1021-1039, September.
    13. Michael Artis & Anindya Banerjee & Massimiliano Marcellino, "undated". "Factor forecasts for the UK," Working Papers 203, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    14. Chen, Su-Jane & Jordan, Bradford D., 1993. "Some empirical tests in the arbitrage pricing theory: Macro variables vs. derived factors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 65-89, February.
    15. Lehmann, Bruce N. & Modest, David M., 1988. "The empirical foundations of the arbitrage pricing theory," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 213-254, September.
    16. Lakonishok, Josef & Shapiro, Alan C., 1986. "Systematic risk, total risk and size as determinants of stock market returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 115-132, March.
    17. Chen, Nai-Fu & Roll, Richard & Ross, Stephen A, 1986. "Economic Forces and the Stock Market," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(3), pages 383-403, July.
    18. Ľuboš Pástor & Robert F. Stambaugh, 1999. "Costs of Equity Capital and Model Mispricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(1), pages 67-121, February.
    19. Chang, Eric C. & Pinegar, J. Michael, 1990. "Stock Market Seasonals and Prespecified Multifactor Pricing Relations," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(4), pages 517-533, December.
    20. MacKinlay, A. Craig, 1987. "On multivariate tests of the CAPM," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 341-371, June.
    21. Connor, Gregory & Korajczyk, Robert A., 1986. "Performance measurement with the arbitrage pricing theory : A new framework for analysis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 373-394, March.
    22. Ferson, Wayne E & Korajczyk, Robert A, 1995. "Do Arbitrage Pricing Models Explain the Predictability of Stock Returns?," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 68(3), pages 309-349, July.
    23. Robert A. Pari & Son-Nan Chen, 1984. "An Empirical Test Of The Arbitrage Pricing Theory," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 7(2), pages 121-130, June.
    24. Reinganum, Marc R, 1981. "The Arbitrage Pricing Theory: Some Empirical Results," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(2), pages 313-321, May.
    25. Brown, Stephen J & Weinstein, Mark I, 1983. "A New Approach to Testing Asset Pricing Models: The Bilinear Paradigm," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(3), pages 711-743, June.
    26. Burmeister, Edwin & McElroy, Marjorie B, 1988. " Joint Estimation of Factor Sensitivities and Risk Premia for the Arbitrage Pricing Theory," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(3), pages 721-733, July.
    27. Shanken, Jay, 1982. "The Arbitrage Pricing Theory: Is It Testable?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 37(5), pages 1129-1140, December.
    28. Cho, D. Chinhyung & Elton, Edwin J. & Gruber, Martin J., 1984. "On the Robustness of the Roll and Ross Arbitrage Pricing Theory," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(1), pages 1-10, March.
    29. Gur Huberman, 2005. "A Simple Approach to Arbitrage Pricing Theory," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Sudipto Bhattacharya & George M Constantinides (ed.), Theory Of Valuation, chapter 9, pages 289-308, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    30. Connor, Gregory, 1984. "A unified beta pricing theory," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 13-31, October.
    31. William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, September.
    32. Dhrymes, Phoebus J & Friend, Irwin & Gultekin, N Bulent, 1984. "A Critical Reexamination of the Empirical Evidence on the Arbitrage Pricing Theory," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(2), pages 323-346, June.
    33. Chan, Louis K. C. & Karceski, Jason & Lakonishok, Josef, 1998. "The Risk and Return from Factors," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 33(2), pages 159-188, June.
    34. Tiemann, Jonathan, 1988. " Exact Arbitrage Pricing and the Minimum-Variance Frontier," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(2), pages 327-338, June.
    35. Chen, Nai-fu, 1983. "Some Empirical Tests of the Theory of Arbitrage Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(5), pages 1393-1414, December.
    36. Chamberlain, Gary, 1983. "Funds, Factors, and Diversification in Arbitrage Pricing Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(5), pages 1305-1323, September.
    37. Connor, Gregory & Korajczyk, Robert A., 1988. "Risk and return in an equilibrium APT : Application of a new test methodology," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 255-289, September.
    38. Jobson, John D, 1982. "A Multivariate Linear Regression Test for the Arbitrage Pricing Theory," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1037-1042, September.
    39. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-636, May-June.
    40. Mei, Jianping, 1993. "A Semiautoregression Approach to the Arbitrage Pricing Theory," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(2), pages 599-620, June.
    41. Brennan, Michael J. & Chordia, Tarun & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 1998. "Alternative factor specifications, security characteristics, and the cross-section of expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 345-373, September.
    42. Burmeister, Edwin & Wall, Kent D, 1986. "The Arbitrage Pricing Theo;ry and Macroeconomic Factor Measures," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 21(1), pages 1-20, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Abba Ahmed, Bello & Isah I, Salamatu & Aliyu Chika, Umar, 2018. "Long-run Relationship between Islamic Stock Indices and US Macroeconomic Variables," MPRA Paper 104167, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 12 Jul 2018.
    2. Kevin Pacini & David Berg & Thomas Tischer & Peter Mayer & Jean Azam & and Joe Johnson, 2018. "Macroeconomic factors dynamics and firm performance in the United Kingdom," International Journal of Finance, Insurance and Risk Management, International Journal of Finance, Insurance and Risk Management, vol. 8(2), pages 1393-1393.
    3. Kevin Pacini & Peter Mayer & Stefan Attar & Jean Azam, 2017. "Macroeconomic Factors And Firm Performance In The United Kingdom," Journal of Smart Economic Growth, , vol. 2(3), pages 1-11, December.
    4. Padrón, Yaiza García & Boza, Juan García, 2006. "Which are the Risk Factors in the Pricing of Personal Pension in Spain?," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 60(2), November.
    5. Kuwornu, John K.M., 2012. "Effect of Macroeconomic Variables on the Ghanaian Stock Market Returns: A Co-integration Analysis," AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Economics and Management, vol. 4(2), pages 1-12, June.
    6. Serkan Şengül, 2023. "The Effects of Common Macroeconomics Factors on U.S. Stock Returns," Journal of Research in Economics, Politics & Finance, Ersan ERSOY, vol. 8(3), pages 404-424.
    7. Faruque, Muhammad U, 2011. "An empirical investigation of the arbitrage pricing theory in a frontier stock market: evidence from Bangladesh," MPRA Paper 38675, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Attiya Y. Javed, 2000. "Alternative Capital Asset Pricing Models: A Review of Theory and Evidence," PIDE-Working Papers 2000:179, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    2. Chadwick, Meltem, 2010. "Performance of Bayesian Latent Factor Models in Measuring Pricing Errors," MPRA Paper 79060, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Enrique Sentana, 1993. "The econometrics of the stock market II: asset pricing," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 17(3), pages 421-444, September.
    4. Gur Huberman & Zhenyu Wang, 2005. "Arbitrage pricing theory," Staff Reports 216, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    5. Shanken, Jay & Weinstein, Mark I., 2006. "Economic forces and the stock market revisited," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 129-144, March.
    6. Amit Goyal, 2012. "Empirical cross-sectional asset pricing: a survey," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 26(1), pages 3-38, March.
    7. Ferson, Wayne E & Korajczyk, Robert A, 1995. "Do Arbitrage Pricing Models Explain the Predictability of Stock Returns?," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 68(3), pages 309-349, July.
    8. Jones, Christopher S., 2001. "Extracting factors from heteroskedastic asset returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 293-325, November.
    9. Padrón, Yaiza García & Boza, Juan García, 2006. "Which are the Risk Factors in the Pricing of Personal Pension in Spain?," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 60(2), November.
    10. Michailidis, G., 2009. "Multivariate methods in examining macroeconomic variables effect on Greek stock market returns, 1997-2004," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 9(1).
    11. Attiya Yasmeen Javid, 2000. "Alternative Capital Asset Pricing Models: A Review of Theory and Evidence," PIDE Research Report 2000:3, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    12. Zura Kakushadze & Willie Yu, 2016. "Multifactor Risk Models and Heterotic CAPM," Papers 1602.04902, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2016.
    13. Nawalkha, Sanjay K., 1997. "A multibeta representation theorem for linear asset pricing theories," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 357-381, December.
    14. Ouysse, Rachida & Kohn, Robert, 2010. "Bayesian variable selection and model averaging in the arbitrage pricing theory model," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(12), pages 3249-3268, December.
    15. Zura Kakushadze, 2015. "Heterotic Risk Models," Papers 1508.04883, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2016.
    16. Zura Kakushadze & Willie Yu, 2016. "Statistical Risk Models," Papers 1602.08070, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2017.
    17. Bruce N. Lehmann & David M. Modest, 1985. "Mutual Fund Performance Evaluation: A Comparison of Benchmarks and Benchmark Comparisons," NBER Working Papers 1721, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Geweke, John & Zhou, Guofu, 1996. "Measuring the Pricing Error of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(2), pages 557-587.
    19. Sainan Jin & Liangjun Su & Yonghui Zhang, 2015. "Nonparametric testing for anomaly effects in empirical asset pricing models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(1), pages 9-36, February.
    20. Clare, Andrew D. & Priestley, Richard, 1998. "Risk factors in the Malaysian stock market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 6(1-2), pages 103-114, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asset Pricing; Arbitrage Pricing Theory; Factor Analysis; Expected Returns; Principle Components;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpfi:0307006. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: EconWPA (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.