Generalized Predictive Tests and Structural Change Analysis in Econometrics
AbstractA generalized predictive testing procedure for structural stability in nonlinear dynamic simultaneous equations models is presented. It has several attractive features: (1) the tests are based on easy-to-compute predicted residuals; (2) the prediction subsample can be arbitrarily small; (3) only consistency is required and allowance is made for data-based model selection; (4) it is possible to analyze the timing and form of structural change equation by equation or globally, allowing an exploratory analysis of structural change conveniently summarized in a predictive analysis table; and (5) general forms of temporal dependence between model disturbances are allowed. Copyright 1994 by Economics Department of the University of Pennsylvania and the Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ in its series Cahiers de recherche with number 9223.
Length: 41 pages
Date of creation: 1992
Date of revision:
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Other versions of this item:
- Dufour, Jean-Marie & Ghysels, Eric & Hall, Alastair, 1994. "Generalized Predictive Tests and Structural Change Analysis in Econometrics," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 35(1), pages 199-229, February.
- Dufour, J.M. & Ghysels, E. & Hall, A., 1992. "Generalized Predictive Tests and Structural Change Analysis in Econometrics," Cahiers de recherche 9223, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
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