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The Epidemiology of Macroeconomic Expectations Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics Christopher D Carroll
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Since the foundational work of Keynes (1936) macroeconomists have emphasized the importance of agents' expectations in determining macroeconomic outcomes Yet in recent decades macroeconomists have devoted almost no effort to modeling actual empirical expectations data instead assuming all agents' expectations are rational This paper takes up the challenge of modeling empirical household expectations data and shows that a simple standard model from epidemiology does a remarkably good job of explaining the deviations of household inflation and unemployment expectations from the rational expectations benchmark Furthermore a microfoundations or agent-based version of the model may be able to explain in a way that still permits aggregation stark rejections of the pure rational expectations framework like Souleles's (2002) finding that members of different demographic groups have sharply different predictions for macroeconomic aggregates like the inflation rate
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Paper provided by The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics in its series Economics Working Paper Archive with number
462.
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Date of creation: Dec 2001Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:jhu:papers:462Contact details of provider: Postal: 3400 North Charles Street Baltimore, MD 21218 Phone: 410-516-7601 Fax: 410-516-7600 Web page: http://www.econ.jhu.edu More information through EDIRC
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References listed on IDEAS Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile , click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.: George A. Akerlof & William R. Dickens & George L. Perry, 1996.
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Michael T. Kiley, 2006.
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Carin A.B. van der Cruijsen & Sylvester C.W. Eijffinger & Lex H. Hoogduin, 2008.
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DNB Working Papers
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2008-59, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
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Javier Birchenall, 2007.
"Escaping high mortality ,"
Journal of Economic Growth ,
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Michael F. Bryan & Stefan Palmqvist, 2005.
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Martin Sommer & Christopher Carroll, 2004.
"Epidemiological expectations and consumption dynamics ,"
Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003
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Peter Tinsley & Sharon Kozicki, 2003.
"Alternative Sources of the Lag Dynamics of Inflation ,"
Computing in Economics and Finance 2003
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Other versions: Mankiw, N. Gregory & Reis, Ricardo & Wolfers, Justin, 2003.
"Disagreement about Inflation Expectations ,"
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N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis & Justin Wolfers, 2003.
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Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers
2011, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
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NBER Chapters ,
in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003, Volume 18, pages 209-270
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"Imperfect knowledge, inflation expectations, and monetary policy ,"
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Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2002.
"Imperfect knowledge, inflation expectations, and monetary policy ,"
Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory
2002-04, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
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CFS Working Paper Series
2003/40, Center for Financial Studies.
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9884, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
[Downloadable!] (restricted) Athanasios Orphanides & John Williams, 2004.
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in: The Inflation-Targeting Debate, pages 201-246
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"Consumers Sentiment and Cognitive Macroeconometrics Paradoxes and Explanations ,"
ISAE Working Papers
66, ISAE - Institute for Studies and Economic Analyses - (Rome, ITALY).
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Other versions: Lanne, Markku & Luoma, Arto & Luoto, Jani, 2008.
"A Naïve Sticky Information Model of Households’ Inflation Expectations ,"
MPRA Paper
8663, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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Other versions: Damjan Pfajfar & Emiliano Santoro, 2007.
"Heterogeneity, Asymmetries and Learning in InfIation Expectation Formation: An Empirical Assessment ,"
Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006
123, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
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Marcelo Savino Portugal & Angelo Marsiglia Fasolo, 2004.
"Imperfect Rationality and Inflationary Inertia: A New Estimation of the Phillips Curve for Brazil ,"
Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings
5, Econometric Society.
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Felix Geiger & Oliver Sauter, 2009.
"Deflationary vs. Inflationary Expectations - A New-Keynesian Perspective with Heterogeneous Agents and Monetary Believes ,"
Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim
312/2009, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.
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Stefan Palmqvist & Michael F. Bryan, 2005.
"Testing Near-Rationality Using Detail Survey Data ,"
Computing in Economics and Finance 2005
371, Society for Computational Economics.
[Downloadable!]
Bryan, Michael F. & Palmqvist, Stefan, 2005.
"Testing Near-Rationality using Detailed Survey Data ,"
Working Paper Series
183, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
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Bruchez, Pierre-Alain, 2007.
"A Hybrid Sticky-Price and Sticky-Information Model ,"
MPRA Paper
3540, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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Lena Vogel, 2008.
"The Relationship between the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve and the NAIRU over Time ,"
Macroeconomics and Finance Series
200803, Hamburg University, Department Wirtschaft und Politik.
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Emiliano Santoro & Damjan Pfajfar, 2006.
"Heterogeneity and learning in inflation expectation formation: an empirical assessment ,"
Department of Economics Working Papers
0607, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia.
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Paloviita, Maritta, 2007.
"Estimating a small DSGE model under rational and measured expectations: some comparisons ,"
Research Discussion Papers
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[Downloadable!]
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