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A Curva de Phillips e a Experiência Brasileira

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  • Adolfo Sachsida
  • Marcio Ribeiro
  • Claudio Hamilton dos Santos

Abstract

Estimou-se uma curva de Phillips, com dados empilhados, para seis regiões metropolitanas brasileiras. Os resultados econométricos provenientes do uso deste novo conjunto de dados geraram três importantes conclusões: i) foi confirmada a restrição de que a soma dos coeficientes da inflação passada e da expectativa de inflação deve ser igual à unidade,proposta por Blanchard e Gali (2007); ii) ao contrário de alguns resultados anteriores para a economia brasileira, o coeficiente associado à expectativa de inflação se mostrou com magnitude muito superior ao coeficiente associado à inflação passada; e iii) a taxa de desemprego não parece ser um determinante importante da inflação. Evidências adicionais no estudo sugerem a inexistência de um trade-off de curto prazo entre inflação e desemprego na economia do país durante o período analisado.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA in its series Discussion Papers with number 1430.

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Length: 16 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ipe:ipetds:1430

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  1. Olivier Blanchard & Jordi Galí, 2005. "Real wage rigidities and the New Keynesian model," Working Papers 05-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  2. André Minella & Paulo Springer de Freitas & Ilan Goldfajn & Marcelo Kfoury Muinhos, 2003. "Inflation Targeting in Brazil: Constructing Credibility under Exchange Rate Volatility," Working Papers Series 77, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  3. Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Economics Working Papers 341, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  4. Antonio Alberto Mazali & José Angelo Divino, 2011. "Real Wage Rigidity andthe New Phillips Curve: the Brazilian Case," Anais do XXXVII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 37th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 38, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
  5. Sbordone, A.M., 1998. "Prices and Unit Labor Costs: a New Test of Price Stickiness," Papers 653, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  6. Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler & J. David López-Salido, 2000. "European Inflation Dynamics," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0020, Banco de Espa�a.
  7. Karanassou, Marika & Snower, Dennis J., 2007. "Inflation Persistence and the Phillips Curve Revisited," IZA Discussion Papers 2600, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  8. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 1997. "The science of monetary policy: A new Keynesian perspective," Economics Working Papers 356, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Apr 1999.
  9. David Hargreaves & Hannah Kite & Bernard Hodgetts, 2006. "Modelling New Zealand inflation in a Phillips curve," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 69, September.
  10. Gunnar Bardsen & Eilev S. Jansen & Ragnar Nymoen, 2004. "Econometric Evaluation of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(s1), pages 671-686, 09.
  11. Jeremy Rudd & Karl Whelan, 2001. "New tests of the New-Keynesian Phillips curve," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-30, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  12. Angelo M. Fasolo & Marcelo Savino Portugal, 2003. "Imperfect Rationality and Inflationary Inertia: a New Estimation of the Phillips Curve for Brazil," Anais do XXXI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 31th Brazilian Economics Meeting] b34, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
  13. André Minella & Paulo Springer de Freitas & Ilan Goldfajn & Marcelo Kfoury Muinhos, 2003. "Inflation Targeting in Brazil: Constructing Credibility Under Exchange Rate Volatility," Anais do XXXI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 31th Brazilian Economics Meeting] b26, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
  14. Alexandre A. Tombini & Sergio A. Lago Alves, 2006. "The Recent Brazilian Disinflation Process and Costs," Working Papers Series 109, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  15. Steffen Henzel & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2006. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve and the Role of Expectations: Evidence from the Ifo World Economic Survey," CESifo Working Paper Series 1694, CESifo Group Munich.
  16. Timothy Cogley & Argia M. Sbordone, 2006. "Trend inflation and inflation persistence in the New Keynesian Phillips curve," Staff Reports 270, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  17. Sergio A. L. Alves & Waldyr D. Areosa, 2005. "Targets and Inflation Dynamics," Working Papers Series 100, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
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