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Alternative tests of rational expectations models : The case of the term structure

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  • Shiller, Robert J.

Abstract

A linearized version of the rational expectations models of the term structure is put forth in terms of a complete vector of equally spaced observations along the yield curve. A data series on intermediate maturity yields which meets the specifications of the model is presented. The model is tested against a specific and easily interpreted alternative. Earlier studies of rational expectations models, which used "volatility tests" or "likelihood ratio tests," are discussed.
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  • Shiller, Robert J., 1981. "Alternative tests of rational expectations models : The case of the term structure," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 71-87, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:16:y:1981:i:1:p:71-87
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    1. Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-436, June.
    2. Bildersee, John S, 1975. "Some New Bond Indexes," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 48(4), pages 506-525, October.
    3. Richard, Scott F., 1978. "An arbitrage model of the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 33-57, March.
    4. Sargent, Thomas J., 1979. "A note on maximum likelihood estimation of the rational expectations model of the term structure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 133-143, January.
    5. LeRoy, Stephen F & Porter, Richard D, 1981. "The Present-Value Relation: Tests Based on Implied Variance Bounds," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 555-574, May.
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    1. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1062-1088, October.
    2. Cakici, Nusret & Zaremba, Adam, 2023. "Recency bias and the cross-section of international stock returns," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    3. Durré Alain, 2006. "The Liquidity Premium in the Money Market: A Comparison of the German Mark Period and the Euro Area," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 7(2), pages 163-187, May.
    4. Durré, Alain & Evjen, Snorre & Pilegaard, Rasmus, 2003. "Estimating risk premia in money market rates," Working Paper Series 221, European Central Bank.
    5. Stefan Gerlach, 1996. "Monetary policy and the behaviour of interest rates: are long rates excessively volatile?," BIS Working Papers 34, Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Robert J. Shiller, 1985. "Conventional Valuation and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 1610, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Carriero, Andrea & Favero, Carlo A. & Kaminska, Iryna, 2006. "Financial factors, macroeconomic information and the Expectations Theory of the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 339-358.
    8. Pornpinun Chantapacdepong, 2007. "Determinants of the time varying risk premia," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 07/597, School of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
    9. Mayfield, E. Scott & Murphy, Robert G., 1996. "Explaining the term structure of interest rates: A panel data approach," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 11-21, February.
    10. Warren J. Tease, 1988. "The Expectations Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 64(2), pages 120-127, June.
    11. Roberta Muramatsu & Pedro Raffy Vartanian & Gabriel de Andrade Moraes, 2023. "A Behavioral Interpretation of Volatility Patterns in Brazilian Stock Market: Analysis of Pre and Post-COVID-19 Periods from 2019 to 2021," International Journal of Business and Management, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 18(4), pages 1-24, August.
    12. David S. Jones & V. Vance Roley, 1982. "Rational Expectations, the Expectations Hypothesis, and Treasury Bill Yields: An Econometric Analysis," NBER Working Papers 0869, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Gerlach, Stefan, 1997. "The Information Content of the Term Structure: Evidence for Germany," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 161-179.
    14. Schotman, Peter C., 2001. "When units roots matter: excess volatility and excess smoothness of long-term interest rates," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(5), pages 669-694, December.
    15. Stelios Bekiros & Christos Avdoulas, 2020. "Revisiting the Dynamic Linkages of Treasury Bond Yields for the BRICS: A Forecasting Analysis," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 2(2), pages 1-28, May.
    16. Wang, Hailong & Hu, Duni, 2020. "Disagreement with procyclical beliefs and asset pricing," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    17. Gilbert Colletaz, 1987. "Les taux d'intérêt observés sur le marché monétaire sont-ils trop volatils ?," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 38(4), pages 837-852.
    18. Jie Wang & Biyu Peng & Xiaohua Xia & Zhu Ma, 2021. "Are Housing Prices Sustainable in 35 Large and Medium-Sized Chinese Cities? A Study Based on the Cheap Talk Game and Dynamic GMM," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-18, November.
    19. Robert J. Shiller & John Y. Campbell & Kermit L. Schoenholtz, 1983. "Forward Rates and Future Policy: Interpreting the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 14(1), pages 173-224.
    20. Wang, Hailong & Hu, Duni, 2022. "Heterogenous beliefs with sentiments and asset pricing," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    21. Muthucattu Thomas Paul, 2018. "The Issues and Implications About the Volatility of the Stock and the Bond Prices and Their Returns and the Volatility of Interest Rates and Inflation - Which Are Being Researched in Finance and Macro," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 5(2), pages 125-142, March.
    22. Alain Durré, 2006. "The Liquidity Premium in the Money Market: A Comparison of the German Mark Period and the Euro Area," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 7, pages 163-187, May.
    23. Nadia Balemi & Roland Füss & Alois Weigand, 2021. "COVID-19’s impact on real estate markets: review and outlook," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 35(4), pages 495-513, December.
    24. Maria Asuncion Prats Albentosa & Arielle Beyaert, 1998. "Testing the expectations theory in a market of short-term financial assets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(2), pages 101-109.
    25. Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent, 1981. "Exact linear rational expectations models: specification and estimation," Staff Report 71, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.

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