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The term structure of commercial paper rates

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Author Info

  • Downing, Chris
  • Oliner, Stephen

Abstract

This paper tests the expectations hypothesis in the market for commercial paper. Our main dataset, which is new to the literature, consists of daily indexes constructed from the actual market yields for nearly all commercial paper issued by U.S. corporations between January 1998 and August 2003. We show that the term premia built into commercial paper yields rise dramatically at year-end, causing the expectations hypothesis to be rejected. However, once we control for these predictable year-end effects, we find the reverse--that commercial paper yields largely conform with the expectations hypothesis.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Financial Economics.

Volume (Year): 83 (2007)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 59-86

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:83:y:2007:i:1:p:59-86

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505576

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References

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  2. Pierluigi Balduzzi & Giuseppe Bertola & Silverio Foresi, 1993. "A Model of Target Changes and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 4347, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  9. Roberds, William & Runkle, David & Whiteman, Charles H, 1996. "A Daily View of Yield Spreads and Short-Term Interest Rate Movements," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(1), pages 34-53, February.
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  12. Geert Bekaert & Robert J. Hodrick & David Marshall, 1996. "On biases in tests of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates," Working Paper Series, Issues in Financial Regulation WP-96-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
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  17. Hardouvelis, Gikas A., 1994. "The term structure spread and future changes in long and short rates in the G7 countries: Is there a puzzle?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 255-283, April.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Covitz, Daniel & Liang, Nellie & Suarez, Gustavo, 2009. "The anatomy of a financial crisis: the evolution of panic-driven runs in the asset-backed commercial paper market," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jan, pages 1-36.
  2. Refet S. G├╝rkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2006. "Market-based measures of monetary policy expectations," Working Paper Series 2006-04, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  3. Brown, Craig R. & Cyree, Ken B. & Griffiths, Mark D. & Winters, Drew B., 2008. "Further analysis of the expectations hypothesis using very short-term rates," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 600-613, April.
  4. Daniel M. Covitz & Nellie Liang & Gustavo A. Suarez, 2009. "The evolution of a financial crisis: panic in the asset-backed commercial paper market," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2009-36, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  5. Kotomin, Vladimir, 2011. "A test of the expectations hypothesis in very short-term international rates in the presence of preferred habitat for liquidity," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 49-55, February.
  6. Kopchak, Seth J., 2013. "The realized forward term premium in the repo market," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 253-278.
  7. Smant, David / D.J.C., 2010. "Direct tests of the expectations theory of the term structure: Survey expectations, the term premium and coefficient biases," MPRA Paper 19815, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Griffiths, Mark D. & Kotomin, Vladimir & Winters, Drew B., 2009. "Year-end and quarter-end effects in the term structure of sterling repo and Eurepo rates," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 803-817, December.

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