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Predictions of short-term rates and the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates

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  • Daniel L. Thornton

Abstract

Despite its important role in macroeconomics and finance, the expectations hypothesis (EH) of the term structure of interest rates has received little empirical support. While the EH*s poor performance has been attributed to a variety of sources, none appear to account for the EH*s poor performance. Recent evidence (Diebold and Li, 2003; Duffee, 2002; and Carriero, et al., 2003) suggests the possibility that the EH*s poor performance may be due to market participants* relative inability to forecast the short-term rate. This possibility is investigate by comparing h-month ahead forecasts for the 1-month Treasury yield implied by the EH with the forecasts from both random-walk model and a three factor model of the term structure.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its series Working Papers with number 2004-010.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2004-010

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Keywords: Interest rates ; Monetary policy;

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  1. Daniel L. Thornton, 2003. "Testing the expectations hypothesis: some new evidence for Japan," Working Papers 2003-033, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  2. Francis X. Diebold & Canlin Li, 2003. "Forecasting the Term Structure of Government Bond Yields," NBER Working Papers 10048, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Carriero, Andrea & Favero, Carlo A & Kaminska, Iryna, 2004. "Financial Factors, Macroeconomic Information and the Expectations Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 4301, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Simon, David P, 1990. " Expectations and the Treasury Bill-Federal Funds Rate Spread over Recent Monetary Policy Regimes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 467-77, June.
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  16. Tzavalis, Elias & Wickens, Michael R, 1997. "Explaining the Failures of the Term Spread Models of the Rational Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(3), pages 364-80, August.
  17. Geert Bekaert & Robert J. Hodrick & David A. Marshall, 1997. ""Peso Problem" Explanations for Term Structure Anomalies," NBER Working Papers 6147, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Harvey, David I & Leybourne, Stephen J & Newbold, Paul, 1998. "Tests for Forecast Encompassing," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(2), pages 254-59, April.
  19. Michael Dotsey & Christopher Otrok, 1995. "The rational expectations hypothesis of the term structure, monetary policy, and time-varying term premia," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Win, pages 65-81.
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  21. Charles R. Nelson & Andrew F. Siegel, 1986. "Long-Term Behavior of Yield Curves," NBER Working Papers 1789, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Dai, Qiang & Singleton, Kenneth J., 2002. "Expectation puzzles, time-varying risk premia, and affine models of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 415-441, March.
  23. Gregory R. Duffee, 2002. "Term Premia and Interest Rate Forecasts in Affine Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 405-443, 02.
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Cited by:
  1. Olga Susana M. Monteiro & Artur C. B. da Silva Lopes, 2010. "Short- and Long-Run Tests of the Expectations Hypothesis: The Portuguese Case," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 56(3), pages 257-280.
  2. Daniel L. Thornton, 2009. "How did we get to inflation targeting and where do we go now? a perspective from the U.S. experience," Working Papers 2009-038, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  3. Peter Aling & Shakill Hassan, 2012. "No-Arbitrage One-Factor Models Of The South African Term Structure Of Interest Rates," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 80(3), pages 301-318, 09.
  4. Erdemlioglu, Deniz, 2009. "Macro Factors in UK Excess Bond Returns: Principal Components and Factor-Model Approach," MPRA Paper 28895, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Silva Lopes, Artur C. & M. Monteiro, Olga Susana, 2007. "The expectations hypothesis of the term structure: some empirical evidence for Portugal," MPRA Paper 3437, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. repec:use:tkiwps:1205 is not listed on IDEAS
  7. Daniel L. Thornton, 2012. "How did we get to inflation targeting and where do we need to go to now? a perspective from the U.S. experience," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 65-81.

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