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How effective is central bank forward guidance?

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  • Clemens J.M. Kool
  • Daniel L. Thornton

Abstract

This paper investigates the effectiveness of forward guidance for the central banks of four countries: New Zealand, Norway, Sweden, and the United States. We test whether forward guidance improved market participants’ ability to forecast future short-term and long-term rates. We find that forward guidance improved market participants’ ability to forecast short-term rates over relatively short forecast horizons, but only for Norway and Sweden. Importantly, there is no evidence that forward guidance has increased the efficacy of monetary policy for New Zealand, the country with the longest history of forward guidance.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its series Working Papers with number 2012-063.

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Date of creation: 2012
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2012-063

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Keywords: Monetary policy ; Banks and banking; Central;

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References

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  1. Gosselin, Pierre & Lotz, Aileen & Wyplosz, Charles, 2007. "Interest Rate Signals and Central Bank Transparency," CEPR Discussion Papers 6454, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Clemens Kool & Menno Middeldorp & Stephanie Rosenkranz, 2011. "Central Bank Transparency and the Crowding Out of Private Information in Financial Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(4), pages 765-774, 06.
  3. Daniel L. Thornton, 2003. "Monetary policy transparency: transparent about what?," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 71(5), pages 478-497, 09.
  4. Thornton, Daniel L., 2006. "Tests of the Expectations Hypothesis: Resolving the Campbell-Shiller Paradox," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(2), pages 511-542, March.
  5. Gosselin, Pierre & Gosselin-Lotz, Aileen & Wyplosz, Charles, 2006. "How Much Information Should Interest Rate-Setting Central Banks Reveal?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5666, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Adam Kot & Michal Brzoza-Brzezina, 2008. "The Relativity Theory Revisited: Is Publishing Interest Rate Forecasts Really so Valuable?," National Bank of Poland Working Papers 52, National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute.
  7. Francis X. Diebold & Robert S. Mariano, 1994. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," NBER Technical Working Papers 0169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Menno Middeldorp, 2011. "Central Bank Transparency, the Accuracy of Professional Forecasts, and Interest Rate Volatility," Working Papers 11-12, Utrecht School of Economics.
  9. Charles Goodhart, 2009. "The Interest Rate Conditioning Assumption," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 5(2), pages 85-108, June.
  10. Harvey, David & Leybourne, Stephen & Newbold, Paul, 1997. "Testing the equality of prediction mean squared errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 281-291, June.
  11. Daniel L. Thornton, 2004. "Tests of the expectations hypothesis: resolving the anomalies when the short-term rate is the federal funds rate," Working Papers 2000-003, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  12. Giuseppe Ferrero & Alessandro Secchi, 2009. "The Announcement of Monetary Policy Intentions," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 720, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  13. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2006. "Social Value of Public Information: Comment: Morris and Shin (2002) Is Actually Pro-Transparency, Not Con," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(1), pages 448-452, March.
  14. Aron Drew & Özer Karagedikli, 2007. "Some Benefits of Monetary-Policy Transparency in New Zealand," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 57(11-12), pages 521-539, December.
  15. Sharon McCaw & Satish Ranchhod, 2002. "The Reserve Bank's forecasting performance," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 65, December.
  16. Kool, Clemens J. M. & Thornton, Daniel L., 2004. "A note on the expectations hypothesis at the founding of the Fed," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(12), pages 3055-3068, December.
  17. Hans Gersbach & Volker Hahn, 2008. "Forward Guidance for Monetary Policy: Is It Desirable?," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 08/84, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
  18. Jane Turner, 2006. "An assessment of recent Reserve Bank forecasts," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 69, pages 6p, September.
  19. Frederic S Mishkin, 2004. "Can Central Bank Transparency Go Too Far?," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Christopher Kent & Simon Guttmann (ed.), The Future of Inflation Targeting Reserve Bank of Australia.
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Citations

Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Quelle est l’efficacité du forward guidance à la borne inférieure zéro ?
    by ? in D'un champ l'autre on 2014-04-02 20:28:00
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Cited by:
  1. Ansgar Belke, 2013. "Non-Standard Monetary Policy Measures – Magic Wand or Tiger by the Tail?," Ruhr Economic Papers 0447, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
  2. Maria Lucia Florez-Jimenez & Julian A. Parra-Polania, 2014. "Forward guidance with an escape clause: When half a promise is better than a full one," Borradores de Economia 811, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  3. Céline Antonin & Christophe Blot & Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance & Catherine Mathieu & Christine Rifflart & Vincent Touze, 2013. "Politiques monétaires : est-ce le début de la fin ?," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/6ggbvnr6mun, Sciences Po.
  4. Xavier Timbeau, 2013. "La crise sur un plateau : perspectives 2013-2014," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/6ggbvnr6mun, Sciences Po.

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