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An assessment of recent Reserve Bank forecasts

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  • Jane Turner

    (Reserve Bank of New Zealand)

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    Abstract

    The Reserve Bank's ability to produce good quality forecasts is critical for it to operate monetary policy in a forward-looking environment. As part of the Bank's regular review of its own forecasting performance, we compare the Reserve Bank's forecasts of key variables from the past three years against a benchmark of forecasts prepared by other forecasters. The results from this review suggest that the Bank's forecast performance over recent years has been at least comparable to the average of other forecasters. In the case of CPI inflation and 90-day interest rates, the Bank's forecasts performed slightly better than the average of other forecasters.

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    File URL: http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/research_and_publications/reserve_bank_bulletin/2006/2006sep69_3turner.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Reserve Bank of New Zealand in its journal Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin.

    Volume (Year): 69 (2006)
    Issue (Month): (September)
    Pages: 6p

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    Handle: RePEc:nzb:nzbbul:september2006:4

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    Cited by:
    1. Clemens J.M. Kool & Daniel L. Thornton, 2012. "How effective is central bank forward guidance?," Working Papers 2012-063, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

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