Should Central Banks publish interest rate forecasts? - A Survey
AbstractAs a particular form of transparency, nowadays some central banks publish their interest rate forecasts while many others refuse to do that. Whether the publication is good or bad for economic performance and social welfares is now a hotly debatable subject. This paper provides a review of the literature in both theoretical and empirical aspects. We also establish a criteria table which could be used as a preliminary guideline for central banks in answering the question whether they should reveal the forecasts, and how to publish the policy rate inclinations. The suggested conclusion is that interest rate projections should be considered as one of the last items that central banks should reveal and they should be very careful in publishing its policy rate forecasts.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 44676.
Date of creation: 01 Mar 2013
Date of revision: 01 Mar 2013
Central bank; transparency; interest rate forecasts;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-03-16 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2013-03-16 (Central Banking)
- NEP-FOR-2013-03-16 (Forecasting)
- NEP-MAC-2013-03-16 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2013-03-16 (Monetary Economics)
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