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Should Central Banks publish interest rate forecasts? - A Survey

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  • Phan, Tuan

Abstract

As a particular form of transparency, nowadays some central banks publish their interest rate forecasts while many others refuse to do that. Whether the publication is good or bad for economic performance and social welfares is now a hotly debatable subject. This paper provides a review of the literature in both theoretical and empirical aspects. We also establish a criteria table which could be used as a preliminary guideline for central banks in answering the question whether they should reveal the forecasts, and how to publish the policy rate inclinations. The suggested conclusion is that interest rate projections should be considered as one of the last items that central banks should reveal and they should be very careful in publishing its policy rate forecasts.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 44676.

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Date of creation: 01 Mar 2013
Date of revision: 01 Mar 2013
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:44676

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Keywords: Central bank; transparency; interest rate forecasts;

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  1. Giuseppe Ferrero & Alessandro Secchi, 2009. "The Announcement of Monetary Policy Intentions," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers), Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area 720, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  2. Adam Kot & Michal Brzoza-Brzezina, 2008. "The Relativity Theory Revisited: Is Publishing Interest Rate Forecasts Really so Valuable?," National Bank of Poland Working Papers, National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute 52, National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute.
  3. Cruijsen, C.A.B. van der & Eijffinger, S.C.W., 2007. "The Economic Impact of Central Bank Transparency: A Survey," Discussion Paper, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research 2007-06, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  4. Pierre Gosselin & Aileen Lotz & Charles Wyplosz, 2008. "The Expected Interest Rate Path: Alignment of Expectations vs. Creative Opacity," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(3), pages 145-185, September.
  5. Marvin Goodfriend, 1985. "Monetary mystique : secrecy and central banking," Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond 85-07, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
  6. Gosselin, Pierre & Gosselin-Lotz, Aileen & Wyplosz, Charles, 2006. "How Much Information Should Interest Rate-Setting Central Banks Reveal?," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 5666, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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