The Announcement of Monetary Policy Intentions
AbstractWhether a central bank should share with the public its views about the future evolution of short term interest rates is an unresolved issue. Disclosing this information might allow a more precise control of market expectations and a more effective achievement of the ultimate goals of the monetary authority. Yet, if the public do not understand the conditional nature of this forecast, it could also undermine the credibility of the central bank. We provide new evidence on the effects of this announcement on private expectations about future short term interest rates. The communication of policy intentions tends to be associated with a greater predictability of monetary policy decisions. Moreover, focussing on New Zealand, where the central bank releases interest rate projections, we find that market expectations react significantly and persistently to the unexpected part of such forecasts. Finally it emerges that the predicted component of the changes in these projections is large, suggesting that market operators understand their conditionality.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area in its series Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) with number 720.
Date of creation: Sep 2009
Date of revision:
monetary policy; communication; interest rates;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
- E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2009-10-17 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2009-10-17 (Central Banking)
- NEP-MAC-2009-10-17 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2009-10-17 (Monetary Economics)
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Brzoza-Brzezina, Michal & Kot, Adam, 2008.
"The Relativity Theory Revisited: Is Publishing Interest Rate Forecasts Really so Valuable?,"
10296, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Adam Kot & Michal Brzoza-Brzezina, 2008. "The Relativity Theory Revisited: Is Publishing Interest Rate Forecasts Really so Valuable?," National Bank of Poland Working Papers 52, National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute.
- Hughes Hallett, Andrew & Di Bartolomeo, Giovanni & Acocella, Nicola, 2012. "A general theory of controllability and expectations anchoring for small-open economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 397-411.
- Giuseppe Ferrero & Alessandro Secchi, 2010.
"Central banks' macroeconomic projections and learning,"
Temi di discussione (Economic working papers)
782, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Giuseppe Ferrero & Alessandro Secchi, 2010. "Central bank’s macroeconomic projections and learning," National Bank of Poland Working Papers 72, National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute.
- Magdalena Szyszko, 2013.
"The interdependences of central bank’s forecasts and inflation expectations of consumers,"
Bank i Kredyt,
National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute, vol. 44(1), pages 33-66.
- Magdalena Szyszko, 2011. "The interdependences of central bank’s forecasts and economic agents inflation expectations.Empirical study," National Bank of Poland Working Papers 105, National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute.
- Gunda-Alexandra Detmers & Dieter Nautz, 2014. "Stale Forward Guidance," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2014-027, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
- Phan, Tuan, 2013. "Should Central Banks publish interest rate forecasts? - A Survey," MPRA Paper 44676, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Mar 2013.
- Lars Winkelmann, 2013. "Quantitative forward guidance and the predictability of monetary policy - A wavelet based jump detection approach -," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2013-016, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
- Detmers, Gunda-Alexandra & Nautz, Dieter, 2013. "How Stale Central Bank Interest Rate Projections Affect Interest Rate Uncertainty," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79861, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- Martina Cecioni & Giuseppe Ferrero & Alessandro Secchi, 2011. "Unconventional Monetary Policy in Theory and in Practice," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 102, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Pierre Gosselin & Aileen Lotz & Charles Wyplosz, 2008. "The Expected Interest Rate Path: Alignment of Expectations vs. Creative Opacity," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(3), pages 145-185, September.
- Mikael Apel & Anders Vredin, 2007. "Monetary-Policy Communication: The Experience of the Swedish Riksbank," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 57(11-12), pages 499-520, December.
- Clemens J.M. Kool & Daniel L. Thornton, 2012. "How effective is central bank forward guidance?," Working Papers 2012-063, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.