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Explaining Movements in the NZ Dollar - Central Bank Communication and the Surprise Element in Monetary Policy?

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Abstract

We conduct a high frequency event analysis to estimate the effects of monetary policy surprises, data surprises, and central bank verbal statements on the New Zealand-US dollar and the New Zealand-Australian dollar exchange rates. We find data surprises and monetary policy surprises have significant and large effects on exchange rate movements. More importantly, RBNZ interest rate decisions have a largely permanent impact on the exchange rate. Significantly, the impact of the published interest rate track seems to explain some 10 per cent additional variation in the exchange rate.

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File URL: http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/research_and_publications/discussion_papers/2008/dp08_02.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Reserve Bank of New Zealand in its series Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series with number DP2008/02.

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Length: 42 p.
Date of creation: Feb 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nzb:nzbdps:2008/02

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  1. Ramchander, Sanjay & Simpson, Marc W. & Chaudhry, Mukesh K., 2005. "The influence of macroeconomic news on term and quality spreads," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 84-102, February.
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  4. Claus Brand & Daniel Buncic & Jarkko Turunen, 2008. "The Impact of ECB Monetary Policy Decisions and Communication on the Yield Curve," Discussion Papers 2008-11, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
  5. Andersson, Magnus, 2007. "Using intraday data to gauge financial market responses to Fed and ECB monetary policy decisions," Working Paper Series 0726, European Central Bank.
  6. Pierre L. Siklos & Martin T. Bohl, 2007. "Policy Words and Policy Deeds: The ECB and the Euro," Working Paper Series 35-07, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, revised Jul 2007.
  7. Frederic S Mishkin, 2004. "Can Central Bank Transparency Go Too Far?," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Christopher Kent & Simon Guttmann (ed.), The Future of Inflation Targeting Reserve Bank of Australia.
  8. Roberto Rigobon & Brian Sack, 2001. "Measuring the reaction of monetary policy to the stock market," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-14, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  9. Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2003. "Monetary Policy Announcements and Money Markets: A Transatlantic Perspective," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(3), pages 309-28, Winter.
  10. Monika Piazzesi & Eric Swanson, 2004. "Future prices as risk-adjusted forecasts of monetary policy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
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Cited by:
  1. Gunda-Alexandra Detmers & Dieter Nautz, 2011. "The information content of central bank interest rate projections: Evidence from New Zealand," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2011-032, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  2. Özer Karagedikli & Rishab Sethi & Christie Smith & Aaron Drew, 2008. "Changes in the transmission mechanism of monetary policy in New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2008/03, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  3. Eijffinger, S.C.W. & Mahieu, R.J. & Raes, L.B.D., 2012. "Can the Fed talk the Hind Legs off the Stock Market? (replaces CentER DP 2011-072)," Discussion Paper 2012-012, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.

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