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Long-Term Behavior of Yield Curves

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  • Siegel, Andrew F.
  • Nelson, Charles R.

Abstract

The flattening of yield curves at long-term maturities is proven to be approximately proportional to the reciprocal of the time to maturity under general conditions. This is a consequence of the persistence of earlier forward rates in the averaging process which produces yields from forward rates. This relationship suggests the use of a"reciprocal maturity yield curve" which significantly facilitates the interpretation of the behavior of long-term yields by linearizing them for display over a shorter interval. This is illustrated using a yield curve for U.S.Treasury bills.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Cambridge University Press in its journal Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis.

Volume (Year): 23 (1988)
Issue (Month): 01 (March)
Pages: 105-110

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Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:23:y:1988:i:01:p:105-110_01

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  1. Livingston, Miles B & Jain, Suresh K, 1982. " Flattening of Bond Yield Curves for Long Maturities," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 37(1), pages 157-67, March.
  2. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1981. "A Re-examination of Traditional Hypotheses about the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(4), pages 769-99, September.
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Cited by:
  1. C. Emre Alper & Aras Akdemir & Kazim Kazimov, 2004. "Estimating the Term Structure of Government Securities in Turkey," Working Papers 2004/03, Bogazici University, Department of Economics.
  2. Robert R. Bliss & Ehud I. Ronn, 1997. "Callable U.S. Treasury bonds: optimal calls, anomalies, and implied volatilities," Working Paper 97-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  3. Cem Çakmakli, 2012. "Bayesian Semiparametric Dynamic Nelson-Siegel Model," Working Paper Series 59_12, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, revised Sep 2012.
  4. Massimo Guidolin & Daniel L. Thornton, 2010. "Predictions of short-term rates and the expectations hypothesis," Working Papers 2010-013, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  5. Guidolin, Massimo & Thornton, Daniel L., 2008. "Predictions of short-term rates and the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates," Working Paper Series 0977, European Central Bank.
  6. Diebold, Francis X. & Li, Canlin, 2006. "Forecasting the term structure of government bond yields," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 130(2), pages 337-364, February.
  7. Yallup, Peter J., 2012. "Models of the yield curve and the curvature of the implied forward rate function," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 121-135.
  8. Alessia Paccagnini, 2014. "The Macroeconomic Determinants of the US Term-Structure during the Great Moderation," Working Papers 274, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Jun 2014.
  9. Rodrigo Cabral & Richard Munclinger & Luiz Alves & Marco Rodriguez Waldo, 2011. "On Brazil’s Term Structure," IMF Working Papers 11/113, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Jon Faust & John H. Rogers & Shing-Yi B. Wang & Jonathan H. Wright, 2003. "The high-frequency response of exchange rates and interest rates to macroeconomic announcements," International Finance Discussion Papers 784, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  11. Madura, J. & Wiley, M. K. & Zarruk, E. R., 1998. "Cointegration of term structure premiums across countries," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 393-412, November.

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