No-Arbitrage One-Factor Models of the South African Term-Structure of Interest Rates
AbstractShort-term interest rate processes determine the term-structure of interest rates in an arbitrage-free market, and are central to the valuation of interest-rate derivatives. We obtain parameter estimates and compare the empirical fit of alternative one-factor continuous-time processes for the South African short-term interest rate (and hence of arbitrage-free term-structure models), using Gaussian estimation methods. We find support only for diffusions where the interest rate volatility is moderately sensitive to the level of the interest rate. Other common models with restrictions that either preclude this effect, or restrict it to be too high, do not fit the data. Differences in the specification of the drift function have no evident effect on model performance.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Economic Research Southern Africa in its series Working Papers with number 246.
Length: 22 pages
Date of creation: 2011
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bonds and interest-rate derivatives; arbitrage theory; maximum likelihood; continuous-time short rate models; term-structure of interest rates.;
Other versions of this item:
- Peter Aling & Shakill Hassan, 2012. "No-Arbitrage One-Factor Models Of The South African Term Structure Of Interest Rates," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 80(3), pages 301-318, 09.
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
- C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
- E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-10-09 (All new papers)
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