Estimating Monetary Policy Rules for South Africa
In: Monetary Policy: Rules and Transmission Mechanisms
AbstractSouth African monetary policy has experienced major shifts, with three broad monetary policy regimes since the 1960s. This paper analyses the conduct of monetary policy, describing the historical record and institutions of monetary policy, and formally modelling extended Taylor rules for interest rate policy formation. Our principal interest is in the second regime (prior to inflation targeting), when the short-term interest rate first became the main monetary policy instrument, with reference to monetary targets and an eclectic set of economic indicators. Policy was opaque in this regime, and has never been studied in the context of rigorous empirical models. Taylor rules, augmented for foreign interest rate influences and interest rate smoothing, and based either on forecast, or actual, inflation and output gap measures, poorly describe the behavior of the discount rate. A satisfactory model includes the deviation of money growth from target in the rule and controls for the extensive financial liberalisation occurring in the period. In practice, the central bank emphasized current inflation, giving a low weight to the output gap. We find weak evidence for structural breaks reflecting competing balance of payments considerations.
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This chapter was published in: Norman Loayza & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series Editor) (ed.) Monetary Policy: Rules and Transmission Mechanisms, , chapter 15, pages 427-476, 2002.
This item is provided by Central Bank of Chile in its series Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series with number v04c15pp427-476.
Other versions of this item:
- Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2001. "Estimating monetary policy rules for South Africa," CSAE Working Paper Series 2001-07, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
- Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2001. "Estimating Monetary Policy rules for South Africa," Economics Series Working Papers WPS/2001-07, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2000. "Estimating Monetary Policy Rules for South Africa," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 89, Central Bank of Chile.
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- Peter Aling & Shakill Hassan, 2011.
"No-Arbitrage One-Factor Models of the South African Term-Structure of Interest Rates,"
246, Economic Research Southern Africa.
- Peter Aling & Shakill Hassan, 2012. "No-Arbitrage One-Factor Models Of The South African Term Structure Of Interest Rates," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 80(3), pages 301-318, 09.
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