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Forecasting U.K. and U.S. interest rates using continuous time term structure models

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  • Byers, S. L.
  • Nowman, K. B.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal International Review of Financial Analysis.

Volume (Year): 7 (1998)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 191-206

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Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:7:y:1998:i:3:p:191-206

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620166

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References

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  1. Bergstrom, A.R., 1984. "Continuous time stochastic models and issues of aggregation over time," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 20, pages 1145-1212 Elsevier.
  2. Dothan, L. Uri, 1978. "On the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 59-69, March.
  3. Chambers, Marcus J., 1991. "Discrete Models for Estimating General Linear Continuous Time Systems," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(04), pages 531-542, December.
  4. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1980. " An Analysis of Variable Rate Loan Contracts," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 35(2), pages 389-403, May.
  5. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 385-407, March.
  6. A.R. Bergstrom, . "Gaussian Estimation of Mixed Order Continuous Time Dynamic Models with Unobservable Stochastic Trends from Mixed Stock and Flow Data," Economics Discussion Papers 448, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
  7. Brennan, Michael J. & Schwartz, Eduardo S., 1980. "Analyzing Convertible Bonds," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(04), pages 907-929, November.
  8. Bergstrom, A. R., 1986. "The Estimation of Open Higher-Order Continuous Time Dynamic Models with Mixed Stock and Flow Data," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(03), pages 350-373, December.
  9. Cox, John C. & Ross, Stephen A., 1976. "The valuation of options for alternative stochastic processes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 145-166.
  10. Marcus Chambers & K. Ben Nowman, 1997. "Forecasting with the almost ideal demand system: evidence from some alternative dynamic specifications," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(7), pages 935-943.
  11. Brennan, Michael J. & Schwartz, Eduardo S., 1979. "A continuous time approach to the pricing of bonds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 133-155, July.
  12. Bergstrom, A. R. & Nowman, K. B. & Wymer, C. R., 1992. "Gaussian estimation of a second order continuous time macroeconometric model of the UK," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 313-351, October.
  13. Nowman, K. Ben, 1991. "Open Higher Order Continuous-Time Dynamic Model with Mixed Stock and Flow Data and Derivatives of Exogenous Variables," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(03), pages 404-408, September.
  14. Tse, Y. K., 1995. "Some international evidence on the stochastic behavior of interest rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 721-738, October.
  15. Robert C. Merton, 1973. "Theory of Rational Option Pricing," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 4(1), pages 141-183, Spring.
  16. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June.
  17. Vasicek, Oldrich, 1977. "An equilibrium characterization of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 177-188, November.
  18. K. Ben Nowman, 1998. "Continuous-time short term interest rate models," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(4), pages 401-407.
  19. Bergstrom, A. R., 1985. "The Estimation of Parameters in Nonstationary Higher Order Continuous-Time Dynamic Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(03), pages 369-385, December.
  20. Dahlquist, Magnus, 1996. "On alternative interest rate processes," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(6), pages 1093-1119, July.
  21. Bergstrom, Albert Rex, 1983. "Gaussian Estimation of Structural Parameters in Higher Order Continuous Time Dynamic Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(1), pages 117-52, January.
  22. Michael J. Brennan and Eduardo S. Schwartz., 1979. "A Continuous-Time Approach to the Pricing of Bonds," Research Program in Finance Working Papers 85, University of California at Berkeley.
  23. Nowman, K B, 1998. "Econometric Estimation of a Continuous Time Macroeconomic Model of the United Kingdom with Segmented Trends," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 12(3), pages 243-54, December.
  24. Vasicek, Oldrich Alfonso, 1977. "Abstract: An Equilibrium Characterization of the Term Structure," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(04), pages 627-627, November.
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Cited by:
  1. Burak Saltoglu, 2003. "Comparing forecasting ability of parametric and non-parametric methods: an application with Canadian monthly interest rates," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(3), pages 169-176.
  2. Nowman, K. Ben, 2002. "The volatility of Japanese interest rates: evidence for Certificate of Deposit and Gensaki rates," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 29-38.
  3. Nowman, K. Ben & Sorwar, Ghulam, 1999. "Pricing UK and US securities within the CKLS model Further results," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 235-245, March.
  4. Nowman, K. Ben & Saltoglu, Burak, 2003. "Continuous time and nonparametric modelling of U.S. interest rate models," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 25-34.

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