No-Arbitrage One-Factor Models Of The South African Term Structure Of Interest Rates
Short-term interest rate processes determine the term-structure of interest rates in an arbitrage-free market, and are central to the valuation of interest-rate derivatives. We obtain parameter estimates and compare the empirical fit of alternative one-factor continuous-time processes for the South African short-term interest rate (and hence of arbitrage-free term-structure models), using Gaussian estimation methods. We find support only for diffusions where the interest rate volatility is moderately sensitive to the level of the interest rate. Other common models with restrictions that either preclude this effect, or restrict it to be too high, do not fit the data. Differences in the specification of the drift function have no evident effect on model performance.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 80 (2012)
Issue (Month): 3 (09)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: PO Box 929, 0001 Pretoria|
Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0038-2280
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/subs.asp?ref=0038-2280|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Harrison, J. Michael & Kreps, David M., 1979. "Martingales and arbitrage in multiperiod securities markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 381-408, June.
- Andrew Ang & Sen Dong & Monika Piazzesi, 2007.
"No-Arbitrage Taylor Rules,"
NBER Working Papers
13448, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bergstrom, A.R., 1984. "Continuous time stochastic models and issues of aggregation over time," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 20, pages 1145-1212 Elsevier.
- Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June.
- Vasicek, Oldrich, 1977. "An equilibrium characterization of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 177-188, November.
- Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 385-407, March.
- Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2001.
"Estimating monetary policy rules for South Africa,"
CSAE Working Paper Series
2001-07, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
- Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2002. "Estimating Monetary Policy Rules for South Africa," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Norman Loayza & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.), Monetary Policy: Rules and Transmission Mechanisms, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 15, pages 427-476 Central Bank of Chile.
- Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2001. "Estimating Monetary Policy rules for South Africa," Economics Series Working Papers WPS/2001-07, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2000. "Estimating Monetary Policy Rules for South Africa," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 89, Central Bank of Chile.
- Shakill Hassan & Andrew van Biljon, 2009.
"The Equity Premium and Risk-Free Rate Puzzles in a Turbulent Economy: Evidence from 105 Years of Data from South Africa,"
156, Economic Research Southern Africa.
- Shakill Hassan & Andrew Van biljon, 2010. "The Equity Premium And Risk-Free Rate Puzzles In A Turbulent Economy: Evidence From 105 Years Of Data From South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 78(1), pages 23-39, 03.
- Alan Brace & Dariusz G¸atarek & Marek Musiela, 1997. "The Market Model of Interest Rate Dynamics," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(2), pages 127-155.
- Farshid Jamshidian, 1997. "LIBOR and swap market models and measures (*)," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 1(4), pages 293-330.
- Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July.
- Eric Schaling, 2009. "Capital Controls, Two-Tiered Exchange Rate Systems And Exchange Rate Policy: The South African Experience," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 77(4), pages 505-530, December.
- Johannes Fedderke & Neryvia Pillay, 2010. "A Rational Expectations Consistent Measure of Risk: Using Financial Market Data from a Middle Income Context," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 72(6), pages 769-793, December.
- Mc Manus, Des & Watt, David, 1999. "Estimating One-Factor Models of Short-Term Interest Rates," Staff Working Papers 99-18, Bank of Canada.
- Tse, Y. K., 1995. "Some international evidence on the stochastic behavior of interest rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 721-738, October.
- Daniel L. Thornton, 2005.
"Predictions of short-term rates and the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates,"
2004-010, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Guidolin, Massimo & Thornton, Daniel L., 2008. "Predictions of short-term rates and the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates," Working Paper Series 0977, European Central Bank.
- Bergstrom, Albert Rex, 1983. "Gaussian Estimation of Structural Parameters in Higher Order Continuous Time Dynamic Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(1), pages 117-52, January.
- Heath, David & Jarrow, Robert & Morton, Andrew, 1992. "Bond Pricing and the Term Structure of Interest Rates: A New Methodology for Contingent Claims Valuation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(1), pages 77-105, January.
- Bank for International Settlements, 2007. "Financial stability and local currency bond markets," CGFS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 28, October.
- Dothan, L. Uri, 1978. "On the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 59-69, March.
- repec:fth:oxesaf:2001-7 is not listed on IDEAS
- Joyce, Michael & Relleen, Jonathan & Sorensen, Steffen, 2008.
"Measuring monetary policy expectations from financial market instruments,"
Working Paper Series
0978, European Central Bank.
- Joyce, Michael & Relleen, Jonathan & Sorensen, Steffen, 2008. "Measuring monetary policy expectations from financial market instruments," Bank of England working papers 356, Bank of England.
- Vasicek, Oldrich Alfonso, 1977. "Abstract: An Equilibrium Characterization of the Term Structure," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(04), pages 627-627, November.
- Bergstrom, A. R., 1985. "The Estimation of Parameters in Nonstationary Higher Order Continuous-Time Dynamic Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(03), pages 369-385, December.
- Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1980. " An Analysis of Variable Rate Loan Contracts," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 35(2), pages 389-403, May.
- Chan, K C, et al, 1992.
" An Empirical Comparison of Alternative Models of the Short-Term Interest Rate,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 47(3), pages 1209-27, July.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate CKLS(1992) estimation of interest rate models," Statistical Software Components RTZ00035, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Robert C. Merton, 1973. "Theory of Rational Option Pricing," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 4(1), pages 141-183, Spring.
- Brenner, Robin J. & Harjes, Richard H. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1996. "Another Look at Models of the Short-Term Interest Rate," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(01), pages 85-107, March.
- Bergstrom, A. R., 1986. "The Estimation of Open Higher-Order Continuous Time Dynamic Models with Mixed Stock and Flow Data," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(03), pages 350-373, December.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:sajeco:v:80:y:2012:i:3:p:301-318. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing)or (Christopher F. Baum)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.