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Testing the expectations hypothesis: some new evidence for Japan

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  • Daniel L. Thornton

Abstract

The deregulation of the Japanese financial markets and the adoption of an interest rate policy instrument by the Bank of Japan prompted a number of empirical investigations of the expectation hypothesis (EH) of the term structures of interest rates in Japan. This paper is a continuation of this research. It deviates from the previous work on the EH in Japan in two respects. First, it tests the EH by estimating a general vector autoregression (VAR) of the long-term and short-term rates and testing the restrictions implied by the EH on the VAR using a Lagrange multiplier test. Second, the issue of stationarity of interest rates is considered. The paper not only considers the possibility that Japanese interest rates are nonstationary, but also analyzes the implications of nonstationarity for the EH.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its journal Review.

Volume (Year): (2004)
Issue (Month): Sep ()
Pages: 21-40

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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlrv:y:2004:i:sep:p:21-40:n:v.86no.5

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Keywords: Monetary policy - Japan ; Interest rates - Japan;

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References

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  1. Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2002. "Term structure evidence on interest rate smoothing and monetary policy inertia," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1161-1187, September.
  2. Engsted, Tom & Tanggaard, Carsten, 1994. "Cointegration and the US term structure," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 167-181, January.
  3. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1062-88, October.
  4. Andrea Carriero & Carlo Favero & Iryna Kaminska, 2004. "Financial Factors, Macroeconomic Information and the Expectations Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Working Papers 253, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  5. Okina, Kunio & Shiratsuka, Shigenori, 2004. "Policy commitment and expectation formation: Japan's experience under zero interest rates," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 75-100, March.
  6. William Poole & Robert H & Rasche & Daniel L. Thornton, 2002. "Market anticipations of monetary policy actions," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 65-94.
  7. Geert Bekaert & Robert J. Hodrick, 2000. "Expectations Hypotheses Tests," NBER Working Papers 7609, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Daniel L. Thornton, 1985. "Money demand dynamics: some new evidence," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 14-23.
  9. Geert Bekaert & Robert J. Hodrick & David A. Marshall, 1997. ""Peso problem" explanations for term structure anomalies," Working Paper Series, Issues in Financial Regulation WP-97-07, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  10. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1989. "Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View," NBER Working Papers 3153, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Clemens J. M. Kool & Daniel L. Thornton, 2003. "A note on the expectations hypothesis at the founding of the Fed," Working Papers 2000-004, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  12. John Y. Campbell & Yasushi Hamao, 1993. "The Interest Rate Process and the Term Structure of Interest Rates in Japan," NBER Chapters, in: Japanese Monetary Policy, pages 95-120 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Lucio Sarno & Daniel L. Thornton, 2002. "The dynamic relationship between the federal funds rate and the Treasury bill rate: an empirical investigation," Working Papers 2000-032, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  14. Pierluigi Balduzzi & Giuseppe Bertola & Silverio Foresi, 1993. "A Model of Target Changes and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 4347, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. David A. Dickey & Dennis W. Jansen & Daniel L. Thornton, 1991. "A primer on cointegration with an application to money and income," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 58-78.
  16. Hall, Anthony D & Anderson, Heather M & Granger, Clive W J, 1992. "A Cointegration Analysis of Treasury Bill Yields," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(1), pages 116-26, February.
  17. Daniel L. Thornton, 2003. "Monetary policy transparency: transparent about what?," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 71(5), pages 478-497, 09.
  18. Takagi, Shinji, 1988. "Recent developments in Japan's bond and money markets," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 63-91, March.
  19. Daniel L. Thornton, 2004. "Tests of the expectations hypothesis: resolving the Campbell-Shiller paradox," Working Papers 2003-022, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Guidolin, Massimo & Thornton, Daniel L., 2008. "Predictions of short-term rates and the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates," Working Paper Series 0977, European Central Bank.
  2. Azar, Samih Antoine, 2010. "Testing the Expectations Hypothesis on Corporate Bond Yields," Review of Applied Economics, Review of Applied Economics, vol. 6(1-2).
  3. Mark J. Holmes & Jesús Otero & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2010. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates, the Expectations Hypothesis and International Financial Integration: Evidence from Asian Economies," Working Paper Series 34_10, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
  4. Charles Goodhart, 2009. "The Interest Rate Conditioning Assumption," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 5(2), pages 85-108, June.
  5. Kagraoka, Yusho & Moussa, Zakaria, 2013. "Quantitative easing, credibility and the time-varying dynamics of the term structure of interest rate in Japan," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 181-201.
  6. Mohamed Z. M. Aazim & Nawalage S. Cooray, 2010. "Monetary Policy and Yield Curve Dynamics in an Emerging Market: Sri Lankan Perspectives," Working Papers EMS_2010_11, Research Institute, International University of Japan.
  7. Zhu, Xiaoneng, 2011. "Revisiting the expectations hypothesis: The Japanese term structure and regime shifts," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 237-249, May.
  8. Nagayasu, Jun, 2004. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates and Monetary Policy during a Zero Interest Rate Period," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 22(2), pages 19-43, May.
  9. Filippo COSSETTI & Francesco GUIDI, 2009. "ECB Monetary Policy and Term Structure of Interest Rates in the Euro Area: an Empirical Analysis," Working Papers 334, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.

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