This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

The Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure: Some Empirical Evidence for Portugal

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Silva Lopes, Artur C.
Monteiro, Olga Susana

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to test the (rational) expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates using Portuguese data for the interbank money market. The results obtained support only a very weak, long-run or "asymptotic" version of the hypothesis, and broadly agree with previous evidence for other countries. The empirical evidence supports the cointegration of Portuguese rates and the "puzzle" well known in the literature: although its forecasts of future short-term rates are in the correct direction, the spread between longer and shorter rates fails to forecast future longer rates. In the single equation framework, the implications of the hypothesis in terms of the predictive ability of the spread are also clearly rejected, even for the more stable period which emerged in the middle nineties.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/6310/
File Format:
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 6310.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length:
Date of creation: 2007
Date of revision: 14 Dec 2007
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:6310

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Schackstr. 4, D-80539 Munich, Germany
Phone: +49-(0)89-2180-2219
Fax: +49-(0)89-2180-3900
Web page: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht).

Related research
Keywords: term structure of interest rates; expectations hypothesis; hypothesis testing; cointegration; Portugal.;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
C2 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Arshanapalli, Bala & Doukas, John, 1994. "Common stochastic trends in a system of Eurocurrency rates," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(6), pages 1047-1061, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1991. "Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 58(3), pages 495-514, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1062-88, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. John Y. Campbell, 1995. "Some Lessons from the Yield Curve," NBER Working Papers 5031, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Hardouvelis, Gikas A., 1994. "The term structure spread and future changes in long and short rates in the G7 countries: Is there a puzzle?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 255-283, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Daniel L. Thornton, 2004. "Tests of the expectations hypothesis: resolving the Campbell-Shiller paradox," Working Papers 2003-022, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Engsted, Tom & Tanggaard, Carsten, 1994. "A Cointegration Analysis of Danish Zero-Coupon Bond Yields," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 4(4), pages 265-78, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Gonzalo, Jesus, 1994. "Five alternative methods of estimating long-run equilibrium relationships," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 203-233. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Daniel L. Thornton, 2005. "Predictions of short-term rates and the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates," Working Papers 2004-010, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Gerlach, Stefan & Smets, Frank, 1997. "The term structure of Euro-rates: some evidence in support of the expectations hypothesis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 305-321, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. Tzavalis, Elias & Wickens, Michael R, 1997. "Explaining the Failures of the Term Spread Models of the Rational Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(3), pages 364-80, August.
  12. Dominguez, Emilio & Novales, Alfonso, 2000. "Testing the expectations hypothesis in Eurodeposits," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 713-736, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Giorgio Valente & Daniel Thornton & Lucio Sarno, 2005. "The Empirical Failure of the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Bond Yields," Working Papers wp05-13, Warwick Business School, Financial Econometrics Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  14. Henrik Hansen & Søren Johansen, 1999. "Some tests for parameter constancy in cointegrated VAR-models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(2), pages 306-333.
  15. Engsted, Tom & Tanggaard, Carsten, 1994. "Cointegration and the US term structure," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 167-181, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Patterson, Kerry David, 1987. "The Development of Expectations Generating Schemes Which Are Asymptotically Rational," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 34(1), pages 1-18, February.
  17. Neil R. Ericsson & James G. MacKinnon, 2002. "Distributions of error correction tests for cointegration," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 5(2), pages 285-318, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  18. Martin D. Evans & Karen K. Lewis, 1992. "Do Stationary Risk Premia Explain It All? Evidence from the Term Structure," Working Papers 92-11, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    Other versions:
  19. Pantula, Sastry G & Gonzalez-Farias, Graciela & Fuller, Wayne A, 1994. "A Comparison of Unit-Root Test Criteria," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(4), pages 449-59, October.
  20. Hall, Anthony D & Anderson, Heather M & Granger, Clive W J, 1992. "A Cointegration Analysis of Treasury Bill Yields," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(1), pages 116-26, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Markku Lanne, 2000. "Near unit roots, cointegration, and the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(5), pages 513-529. [Downloadable!]
  22. Taylor, Mark P, 1992. "Modelling the Yield Curve," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 102(412), pages 524-37, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  23. Hurn, A Stan & Moody, Terry & Muscatelli, V Anton, 1995. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates in the London Interbank Market," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 47(3), pages 419-36, July.
  24. Camarero, Mariam & Tamarit, Cecilio, 2002. "Instability tests in cointegration relationships. An application to the term structure of interest rates," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 783-799, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? IDEAS was sponsored from 1997 to 2002 by the Université du Québec à Montréal.

This page was last updated on 2009-12-1.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.