Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Testing the expectations hypothesis: some new evidence for Japan

Contents:

Author Info

  • Daniel L. Thornton

Abstract

The deregulation of the Japanese financial markets and the adoption of an interest rate policy instrument by the Bank of Japan prompted a number of empirical investigations of the expectation hypothesis (EH) of the term structures of interest rates in Japan. This paper is a continuation of this research. It deviates from the previous work on the EH in Japan in two respects. It tests the EH by estimating a general vector autoregression (VAR) of the long-term and short-term rates and testing the restrictions implied by the EH on the VAR using a Lagrange multiplier test. In addition, the issue of stationarity of interest rates is considered. The paper not only considers the possibility that Japanese interest rates are nonstationary, but analyzes the implications of non-stationarity for the EH.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/2003/2003-033.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its series Working Papers with number 2003-033.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 2003
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Monetary and Economic Studies, May 2004, 22(2), pp. 45-69
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2003-033

Contact details of provider:
Postal: P.O. Box 442, St. Louis, MO 63166
Fax: (314)444-8753
Web page: http://www.stlouisfed.org/
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Email:

Related research

Keywords: Monetary policy - Japan ; Interest rates - Japan;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Daniel L. Thornton, 2004. "Tests of the expectations hypothesis: resolving the Campbell-Shiller paradox," Working Papers 2003-022, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  2. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1986. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 785, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  3. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1989. "Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View," NBER Working Papers 3153, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Pierluigi Balduzzi & Giuseppe Bertola & Silverio Foresi, 1993. "A Model of Target Changes and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 4347, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Daniel L. Thornton, 1985. "Money demand dynamics: some new evidence," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 14-23.
  6. Okina, Kunio & Shiratsuka, Shigenori, 2004. "Policy commitment and expectation formation: Japan's experience under zero interest rates," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 75-100, March.
  7. Engsted, Tom & Tanggaard, Carsten, 1994. "Cointegration and the US term structure," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 167-181, January.
  8. Daniel L. Thornton, 2003. "Monetary policy transparency: transparent about what?," Working Papers 2002-028, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  9. Iryna Kaminska & Andrea Carriero & Carlo A. Favero, 2004. "Financial Factors, Macroeconomic Information and the Expectations Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 76, Society for Computational Economics.
  10. Geert Bekaert, 2001. "Expectations Hypotheses Tests," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1357-1394, 08.
  11. Clemens J. M. Kool & Daniel L. Thornton, 2003. "A note on the expectations hypothesis at the founding of the Fed," Working Papers 2000-004, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  12. Geert Bekaert & Robert J. Hodrick & David A. Marshall, 1997. ""Peso problem" explanations for term structure anomalies," Working Paper Series, Issues in Financial Regulation WP-97-07, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  13. William Poole & Robert H & Rasche & Daniel L. Thornton, 2002. "Market anticipations of monetary policy actions," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 65-94.
  14. Takagi, Shinji, 1988. "Recent developments in Japan's bond and money markets," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 63-91, March.
  15. Sarno, Lucio & Thornton, Daniel L, 2002. "The Dynamic Relationship Between the Federal Funds rate and the Treasury Bill Rate: An Empirical Investigation," CEPR Discussion Papers 3225, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  16. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2001. "Term structure evidence on interest rate smoothing and monetary policy inertia," Working Paper Series 2001-02, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  17. John Y. Campbell & Yasushi Hamao, 1993. "The Interest Rate Process and the Term Structure of Interest Rates in Japan," NBER Chapters, in: Japanese Monetary Policy, pages 95-120 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Hall, Anthony D & Anderson, Heather M & Granger, Clive W J, 1992. "A Cointegration Analysis of Treasury Bill Yields," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(1), pages 116-26, February.
  19. David A. Dickey & Dennis W. Jansen & Daniel L. Thornton, 1991. "A primer on cointegration with an application to money and income," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 58-78.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Holmes, Mark J. & Otero, Jesús & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2011. "The term structure of interest rates, the expectations hypothesis and international financial integration: Evidence from Asian economies," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 679-689, October.
  2. Daniel L. Thornton, 2005. "Predictions of short-term rates and the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates," Working Papers 2004-010, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  3. Charles Goodhart, 2009. "The Interest Rate Conditioning Assumption," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 5(2), pages 85-108, June.
  4. Nagayasu, Jun, 2004. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates and Monetary Policy during a Zero Interest Rate Period," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 22(2), pages 19-43, May.
  5. Mohamed Z. M. Aazim & Nawalage S. Cooray, 2010. "Monetary Policy and Yield Curve Dynamics in an Emerging Market: Sri Lankan Perspectives," Working Papers EMS_2010_11, Research Institute, International University of Japan.
  6. Filippo COSSETTI & Francesco GUIDI, 2009. "ECB Monetary Policy and Term Structure of Interest Rates in the Euro Area: an Empirical Analysis," Working Papers 334, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
  7. Kagraoka, Yusho & Moussa, Zakaria, 2013. "Quantitative easing, credibility and the time-varying dynamics of the term structure of interest rate in Japan," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 181-201.
  8. Zhu, Xiaoneng, 2011. "Revisiting the expectations hypothesis: The Japanese term structure and regime shifts," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 237-249, May.
  9. Azar, Samih Antoine, 2010. "Testing the Expectations Hypothesis on Corporate Bond Yields," Review of Applied Economics, Review of Applied Economics, vol. 6(1-2).

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2003-033. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Anna Xiao).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.