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Uncovering the risk-return relation in the stock market

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Author Info
Hui Guo
Robert Whitelaw

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Abstract

There is an ongoing debate about the apparent weak or negative relation between risk (conditional variance) and expected returns in the aggregate stock market. We develop and estimate an empirical model based on the ICAPM that separately identifies the two components of expected returns–the risk component and the component due to the desire to hedge changes in investment opportunities. The estimated coefficient of relative risk aversion is positive, statistically significant, and reasonable in magnitude. However, expected returns are driven primarily by the hedge component. The omission of this component is partly responsible for the existing contradictory results.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its series Working Papers with number 2001-001.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Publication status: Published in Journal of Finance, June 2006, 61(3), pp. 1433-63
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2001-001

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Keywords: Stock market Econometric models Asset pricing

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  2. David K. Backus & Allan W. Gregory, 1992. "Theoretical Relations Between Risk Premiums and Conditional Variances," Working Papers 92-18a, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
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  3. Merton, Robert C., 1980. "On estimating the expected return on the market : An exploratory investigation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 323-361, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Merton, Robert C, 1973. "An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(5), pages 867-87, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Campbell, John Y., 1987. "Stock returns and the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 373-399, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Allen, Franklin & Gale, Douglas, 1994. "Limited Market Participation and Volatility of Asset Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 933-55, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Pindyck, Robert S, 1988. "Risk Aversion and Determinants of Stock Market Behavior," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 70(2), pages 183-90, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. John T. Scruggs, 1998. "Resolving the Puzzling Intertemporal Relation between the Market Risk Premium and Conditional Market Variance: A Two-Factor Approach," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(2), pages 575-603, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  24. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  27. Campbell, John Y, 1996. "Understanding Risk and Return," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(2), pages 298-345, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  28. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1989. "Business conditions and expected returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 23-49, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Robert R. Bliss & Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, 2001. "Recovering risk aversion from options," Working Paper Series WP-01-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
  2. Hui Guo & Robert Savickas, 2005. "Idiosyncratic volatility, stock market volatility, and expected stock returns," Working Papers 2003-028, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Hui Guo & Zijun Wang & Jian Yang, 2006. "Does aggregate relative risk aversion change countercyclically over time? evidence from the stock market," Working Papers 2006-047, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  4. Ángel León & Juan Nave & Gonzalo Rubio, 2005. "The Relationship between Risk and Expected Return in Europe," DFAEII Working Papers 200508, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II, revised 04 Jul 2006. [Downloadable!]
  5. Tobias Adrian & Joshua Rosenberg, 2006. "Stock returns and volatility: pricing the short-run and long-run components of market risk," Staff Reports 254, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  6. Lin Peng & Turan G. Bali, 2006. "Is there a risk-return trade-off? Evidence from high-frequency data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(8), pages 1169-1198. [Downloadable!]
  7. Hui Guo & Robert Savickas, 2006. "The relation between time-series and cross-sectional effects of idiosyncratic variance on stock returns in G7 countries," Working Papers 2006-036, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  8. Hui Guo & Christopher J. Neely & Jason Higbee, 2006. "Foreign exchange volatility is priced in equities," Working Papers 2004-029, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  9. Hui Guo & Christopher J. Neely, 2006. "Investigating the intertemporal risk-return relation in international stock markets with the component GARCH model," Working Papers 2006-006, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Hui Guo & Robert Savickas & Zijun Wang & Jian Yang, 2006. "Is value premium a proxy for time-varying investment opportunities: some time series evidence," Working Papers 2005-026, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  11. Long Chen & Hui Guo & Lu Zhang, 2006. "Equity market volatility and expected risk premium," Working Papers 2006-007, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  12. Dimitrios Thomakos & Michail Koubouros, 2008. "The Role of Realized Volatility in the Athens Stock Exchange," Working Papers 0020, University of Peloponnese, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  13. Pástor, Lubos & Sinha, Meenakshi & Swaminathan, Bhaskaran, 2006. "Estimating the Intertemporal Risk-Return Tradeoff Using the Implied Cost of Capital," CEPR Discussion Papers 5462, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Hui Guo & Jason Higbee, 2006. "Market timing with aggregate and idiosyncratic stock volatilities," Working Papers 2005-073, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  15. Tim Bollerslev & Hao Zhou, 2007. "Expected Stock Returns and Variance Risk Premia," CREATES Research Papers 2007-17, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
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  16. Andrew Ang & Robert J. Hodrick & Yuhang Xing & Xiaoyan Zhang, 2004. "The Cross-Section of Volatility and Expected Returns," NBER Working Papers 10852, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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