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Risk Aversion and Determinants of Stock Market Behavior

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  • Pindyck, Robert S

Abstract

A structural model of equity pricing is developed to address two related questions. First, to what extent do unanticipate d changes in such "fundamental" variables as profitability, real in terest rates, inflation, and the variance of returns explain observed stock returns? Second, how risk averse are investors in the aggregat e? The author finds that the pretax profit rate and the variance of r eturns are both significant explainers of the market, and interest ra tes somewhat less so. Estimates of the index of relative risk aversio n put that parameter in the range of 3 to 4. Copyright 1988 by MIT Press.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by MIT Press in its journal Review of Economics & Statistics.

Volume (Year): 70 (1988)
Issue (Month): 2 (May)
Pages: 183-90

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Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:70:y:1988:i:2:p:183-90

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  1. Zvi Bodie & Alex Kane & Robert L. McDonald, 1983. "Why Are Real Interest Rates So High?," NBER Working Papers 1141, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1983. "Stochastic Consumption, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Asset Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 249-65, April.
  3. Friend, Irwin & Blume, Marshall E, 1975. "The Demand for Risky Assets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(5), pages 900-922, December.
  4. Pindyck, Robert S, 1984. "Risk, Inflation, and the Stock Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(3), pages 335-51, June.
  5. James M. Poterba & Lawrence H. Summers, 1984. "The Persistence of Volatility and Stock Market Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 1462, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Martin Feldstein & James M. Poterba & Louis Dicks-Mireaux, 1981. "The Effective Tax Rate and the Pretax Rate of Return," NBER Working Papers 0740, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Martin Feldstein, 1983. "Inflation, Tax Rules, and the Stock Market," NBER Chapters, in: Inflation, Tax Rules, and Capital Formation, pages 199-220 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Merton, Robert C, 1973. "An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(5), pages 867-87, September.
  9. Feldstein, Martin, 1980. "Inflation and the Stock Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 839-47, December.
  10. Stanley Fischer & Robert C. Merton, 1985. "Macroeconomics and Finance: The Role of the Stock Market," NBER Working Papers 1291, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Sanford J. Grossman & Robert J. Shiller, 1980. "The Determinants of the Variability of Stock Market Prices," NBER Working Papers 0564, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Mervyn A. King & Jonathan I. Leape, 1984. "Wealth and Portfolio Composition: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 1468, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Robert C. Merton, 1980. "On Estimating the Expected Return on the Market: An Exploratory Investigation," NBER Working Papers 0444, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Benjamin M. Friedman, 1985. "Crowding Out or Crowding In? Evidence on Debt-Equity Substitutability," NBER Working Papers 1565, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. N. Gregory Mankiw & Julio J. Rotemberg & Lawrence H. Summers, 1982. "Intertemporal Substitution in Macroeconomics," NBER Working Papers 0898, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Officer, R R, 1973. "The Variability of the Market Factor of the New York Stock Exchange," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 46(3), pages 434-53, July.
  17. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1983. "A Test of Portfolio Crowding-Out and Related Issues in Finance," NBER Working Papers 1205, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:
  1. Geert Bekaert & Eric Engstrom & Yuhang Xing, 2006. "Risk, Uncertainty and Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 12248, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Hui Guo & Robert F. Whitelaw, 2003. "Uncovering the Risk-Return Relation in the Stock Market," NBER Working Papers 9927, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Corrado, Charles J. & Jordan, Bradford D. & Miller, Thomas Jr. & Stansfield, John J., 2001. "Repricing and employee stock option valuation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 1059-1082, June.
  4. Robert B. Barsky & Miles S. Kimball & F. Thomas Juster & Matthew D. Shapiro, 1995. "Preference Parameters and Behavioral Heterogeneity: An Experimental Approach in the Health and Retirement Survey," NBER Working Papers 5213, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. H. Naci Mocan & Stephen C. Billups & Jody Overland, 2005. "A Dynamic Model of Differential Human Capital and Criminal Activity," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 72(288), pages 655-681, November.
  6. Hui Guo, 2002. "Stock market returns, volatility, and future output," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 75-86.
  7. Tim BOLLERSLEV & Ray Y. CHOU & Narayanan JAYARAMAN & Kenneth F. KRONER, 1991. "Les modéles ARCH en finance : un point sur la théorie et les résultats empiriques," Annales d'Economie et de Statistique, ENSAE, issue 24, pages 1-59.
  8. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
  9. Flavin, Marjorie & Yamashita, Takashi, 1998. "Owner-Occupied Housing and the Composition of the Household Portfolio over the Life Cycle," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt89x293v9, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
  10. Yoichiro Fujii & Yutaka Nakamura, 2010. "Equity premium under multiple background risks," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(2), pages 933-939.
  11. Marjorie Flavin & Takashi Yamashita, 1998. "Owner-Occupied Housing and the Composition of the Household Portfolio Over the Life-Cycle," NBER Working Papers 6389, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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