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A Shrinkage Approach to Model Uncertainty and Asset Allocation

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  • Zhenyu Wang

Abstract

This article takes a shrinkage approach to examine the empirical implications of aversion to model uncertainty. The shrinkage approach explicitly shows how predictive distributions incorporate data and prior beliefs. It enables us to solve the optimal portfolios for uncertainty-averse investors. Aversion to uncertainty about the capital asset pricing model leads investors to hold a portfolio that is not mean-variance efficient for any predictive distribution. However, mean-variance efficient portfolios corresponding to extremely strong beliefs in the Fama--French model are approximately optimal for uncertainty-averse investors. The empirical Bayes approach does not result in optimal portfolios for investors who are averse to model uncertainty. Copyright 2005, Oxford University Press.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/rfs/hhi014
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Society for Financial Studies in its journal The Review of Financial Studies.

Volume (Year): 18 (2005)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 673-705

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Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:18:y:2005:i:2:p:673-705

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Cited by:
  1. Wachter, Jessica A. & Warusawitharana, Missaka, 2009. "Predictable returns and asset allocation: Should a skeptical investor time the market?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 148(2), pages 162-178, February.
  2. Victor de Miguel & Alberto Martín Utrera & Francisco J. Nogales, 2013. "Parameter uncertainty in multiperiod portfolio optimization with transaction costs," Statistics and Econometrics Working Papers ws132119, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Estadística y Econometría.
  3. Gur Huberman & Zhenyu Wang, 2005. "Arbitrage pricing theory," Staff Reports 216, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  4. Lubos Pastor & Pietro Veronesi, 2009. "Learning in Financial Markets," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 361-381, November.
  5. Taras Bodnar & Nestor Parolya & Wolfgang Schmid, 2012. "A Closed-Form Solution of the Multi-Period Portfolio Choice Problem for a Quadratic Utility Function," Papers 1207.1003, arXiv.org.
  6. Xiaoxian Ma & Qingzhen Zhao & Jilin Qu, 2008. "Robust portfolio optimization with a generalized expected utility model under ambiguity," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 4(4), pages 431-444, October.
  7. Mishra, Anil, 2013. "Measures of Equity Home Bias Puzzle," MPRA Paper 51223, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Golosnoy, Vasyl & Okhrin, Yarema, 2008. "General uncertainty in portfolio selection: A case-based decision approach," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 67(3-4), pages 718-734, September.
  9. Tu, Jun & Zhou, Guofu, 2010. "Incorporating Economic Objectives into Bayesian Priors: Portfolio Choice under Parameter Uncertainty," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(04), pages 959-986, August.
  10. Raman Uppal & Lorenzo Garlappi & Tan Wang, 2004. "Portfolio Selection with Parameter and Model Uncertainty: A Multi-Prior Approach," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 54, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  11. Tu, Jun & Zhou, Guofu, 2011. "Markowitz meets Talmud: A combination of sophisticated and naive diversification strategies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 204-215, January.
  12. DeMiguel, Victor & Martin-Utrera, Alberto & Nogales, Francisco J., 2013. "Size matters: Optimal calibration of shrinkage estimators for portfolio selection," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 3018-3034.
  13. Takuya Kinkawa & Nobuo Shinozaki, 2010. "Dominance of a Class of Stein type Estimators for Optimal Portfolio Weights When the Covariance Matrix is Unknown," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 19-50, March.
  14. Golosnoy, Vasyl & Okhrin, Yarema, 2009. "Flexible shrinkage in portfolio selection," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 317-328, February.
  15. Taras Bodnar & Nestor Parolya & Wolfgang Schmid, 2012. "On the Equivalence of Quadratic Optimization Problems Commonly Used in Portfolio Theory," Papers 1207.1029, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2013.

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