State Dependent Preferences Can Explain the Equity Premium Puzzle
Abstract
We introduce state dependent recursive preferences into the Mehra-Prescott economy. We show that such preferences can match the historical first two moments of the returns on equity and the risk free rate. Other authors have reported similar results using state dependent expected utility preferences. These authors have tended to emphasize the importance of countercyclical risk aversion in explaining the equity premium puzzle. We find that countercyclical risk aversion plays an important role but only when combined with modest cyclical variation in intertemporal substitution. (Copyright: Elsevier)Download Info
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic Info
Article provided by Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics in its journal Review of Economic Dynamics.
Volume (Year): 6 (2003)
Issue (Month): 4 (October)
Pages: 806-830
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Review of Economic Dynamics Academic Press Editorial Office 525 "B" Street, Suite 1900 San Diego, CA 92101
Fax: 1-860-486-4463
Email:
Web page: http://www.EconomicDynamics.org/review.htm
More information through EDIRC
Order Information:
Email:
Web: http://www.EconomicDynamics.org/RED17.htm
Related research
Keywords:Other versions of this item:
- Angelo Melino & Alan X. Yang, 2003. "State Dependent Preferences Can Explain the Equity Premium Puzzle," Working Papers melino-03-01, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
References
References listed on IDEASPlease report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Kubler, Felix, 2004. "Is intertemporal choice theory testable?," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1-2), pages 177-189, February.
- R. Mehra & E. Prescott, 2010.
"The equity premium: a puzzle,"
Levine's Working Paper Archive
1401, David K. Levine.
- Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March.
- Hansen, Lars Peter & Richard, Scott F, 1987. "The Role of Conditioning Information in Deducing Testable," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 587-613, May.
- Breeden, Douglas T., 1979. "An intertemporal asset pricing model with stochastic consumption and investment opportunities," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 265-296, September.
- S.G. Cecchetti & P. Lam & N.C. Mark, 2010.
"The equity premium and the risk-free rate: matching the moments,"
Levine's Working Paper Archive
1396, David K. Levine.
- Cecchetti, Stephen G. & Lam, Pok-sang & Mark, Nelson C., 1993. "The equity premium and the risk-free rate : Matching the moments," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 21-45, February.
- Stephen G. Cecchetti & Pok-sang Lam & Nelson C. Clark, 1991. "The Equity Premium and the Risk Free Rate: Matching the Moments," NBER Working Papers 3752, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- John H Cochrane, 2003.
"Where is the Market Going: Uncertain Facts and Novel Theories,"
Levine's Working Paper Archive
618897000000000762, David K. Levine.
- John H. Cochrane, 1997. "Where is the market going? Uncertain facts and novel theories," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Nov, pages 3-37.
- John H. Cochrane, 1998. "Where is the Market Going? Uncertain Facts and Novel Theories," NBER Working Papers 6207, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Larry G. Epstein & Stanley E. Zin, 1991.
"The Independence Axiom and Asset Returns,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0109, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Epstein, Larry G. & Zin, Stanley E., 2001. "The independence axiom and asset returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(5), pages 537-572, December.
- Lars Peter Hansen & Ravi Jagannathan, 1990.
"Implications of security market data for models of dynamic economies,"
Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics
29, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Hansen, Lars Peter & Jagannathan, Ravi, 1991. "Implications of Security Market Data for Models of Dynamic Economies," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 225-62, April.
- Lars Peter Hansen & Ravi Jagannathan, 1990. "Implications of Security Market Data for Models of Dynamic Economies," NBER Technical Working Papers 0089, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Epstein, Larry G & Zin, Stanley E, 1991. "Substitution, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Consumption and Asset Returns: An Empirical Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 263-86, April.
- Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1983. "Stochastic Consumption, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Asset Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 249-65, April.
- Lettau, Martin & Ludvigson, Sydney, 1999.
"Consumption, Aggregate Wealth and Expected Stock Returns,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
2223, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Martin Lettau, 2001. "Consumption, Aggregate Wealth, and Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(3), pages 815-849, 06.
- Sydney Ludvigson & Martin Lettau, 1999. "Consumption, aggregate wealth and expected stock returns," Staff Reports 77, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Gordon, Stephen & St-Amour, Pascal, 1999.
"A Preference Regime Model of Bull and Bear Markets,"
Cahiers de recherche
9906, Université Laval - Département d'économique.
- Pascal St-Amour & Stephen Gordon, 2000. "A Preference Regime Model of Bull and Bear Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 1019-1033, September.
- Weil, Philippe, 1989.
"The equity premium puzzle and the risk-free rate puzzle,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 401-421, November.
- Phillippe Weil, 1997. "The Equity Premium Puzzle and the Risk-Free Rate Puzzle," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1833, David K. Levine.
- Philippe Weil, 1989. "The Equity Premium Puzzle and the Riskfree Rate Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 2829, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-45, November.
- Epstein, Larry G. & Zin, Stanley E., 1990.
"'First-order' risk aversion and the equity premium puzzle,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 387-407, December.
- L. Epstein & S. Zin, 2010. "First order risk aversion and the equity premium puzzle," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1400, David K. Levine.
- Epstein, Larry G & Zin, Stanley E, 1989. "Substitution, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Consumption and Asset Returns: A Theoretical Framework," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(4), pages 937-69, July.
- Gordon S. & St-Amour P., 2004.
"Asset Returns and State-Dependent Risk Preferences,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 241-252, July.
- Stephen Gordon & Pascal St-Amour, 2003. "Asset Returns and State-Dependent Risk Preferences," CIRANO Working Papers 2003s-09, CIRANO.
- Gordon, Stephen & St-Amour, Pascal, 2003. "Asset Returns and State-Dependent Risk Preferences," Cahiers de recherche 0316, CIRPEE.
- John Y. Campbell & John H. Cochrane, 1994.
"By Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior,"
CRSP working papers
412, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
- Cochrane, John H. & Campbell, John, 1999. "By Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," Scholarly Articles 3119444, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- John Y. Campbell & John H. Cochrane, 1995. "By Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," NBER Working Papers 4995, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- John Y. Campbell & John H. Cochrane, 1994. "By force of habit: a consumption-based explanation of aggregate stock market behavior," Working Papers 94-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Larry G. Epstein & Angelo Melino, 1993.
"A Revealed Preference Analysis of Asset Pricing Under Recursive Utility,"
NBER Working Papers
4524, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Epstein, Larry G & Melino, Angelo, 1995. "A Revealed Preference Analysis of Asset Pricing under Recursive Utility," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(4), pages 597-618, October.
- John Y. Campbell, 1996.
"Consumption and the Stock Market: Interpreting International Experience,"
Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers
1763, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- John Y. Campbell, 1996. "Consumption and the Stock Market: Interpreting International Experience," NBER Working Papers 5610, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- John Y. Campbell & John Cochrane, 1999. "Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(2), pages 205-251, April.
- Robert J. Shiller & John Y. Campbell, 1986.
"The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
812, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- John Y. Campbell, Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(3), pages 195-228.
- John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1989. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," NBER Working Papers 2100, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1988. "Dividend yields and expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-25, October.
- Epstein, Larry G., 1988. "Risk aversion and asset prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 179-192, September.
Citations
Blog mentions
As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:- Welfare costs of the business cycle and the equity premium
by Stephen in Worthwhile Canadian Initiative on 2006-12-15 19:09:36
Cited by:
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page.
Lists
This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:red:issued:v:6:y:2003:i:4:p:806-830For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christian Zimmermann).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

