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Is There a Positive Relationship between Stock Market Volatility and the Equity Premium?

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  • Kim, Chang-Jin
  • Morley, James C
  • Nelson, Charles R

Abstract

This paper investigates whether evidence for a positive relationship between stock market volatility and the equity premium is more decisive when the volatility feedback effects of large and persistent changes in market volatility are taken into account. The analysis has two components. First, a log-linear present value framework is employed to derive a formal model of volatility feedback under the assumption of Markov-switching market volatility. Second, the model is estimated for a variety of assumptions about information available to economic agents. The empirical results suggest the existence of a negative and significant volatility feedback effect, supporting a positive relationship between stock market volatility and the equity premium.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.

Volume (Year): 36 (2004)
Issue (Month): 3 (June)
Pages: 339-60

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Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:36:y:2004:i:3:p:339-60

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Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0022-2879

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Cited by:
  1. Chang-Jin Kim & James C. Morley & Charles Nelson, 1999. "Does an Intertemporal Tradeoff between Risk and Return Explain Mean Reversion in Stock Prices?," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 0028, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
  2. Kim, Chang-Jin & Piger, Jeremy & Startz, Richard, 2008. "Estimation of Markov regime-switching regression models with endogenous switching," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 143(2), pages 263-273, April.
  3. Gabe J. de Bondt & Tuomas A. Peltonen & Daniel Santabárbara, 2010. "Booms and busts in China's stock market: Estimates based on fundamentals," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 1032, Banco de Espa�a.
  4. Bae, Jinho & Kim, Chang-Jin & Nelson, Charles R., 2007. "Why are stock returns and volatility negatively correlated?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 41-58, January.
  5. Eric Ghysels & Pierre Guérin & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2013. "Regime Switches in the Risk-Return Trade-Off," Working Papers 13-51, Bank of Canada.
  6. Lai, Jing-yi, 2012. "Shock-dependent conditional skewness in international aggregate stock markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 72-83.
  7. Walentin, Karl, 2007. "Earnings Inequality and the Equity Premium," Working Paper Series 215, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  8. Buranavityawut, Nonthipoth & Freeman, Mark C. & Freeman, Nisih, 2006. "Has the equity premium been low for 40 years?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 191-205, August.
  9. Scott Mayfield, E., 2004. "Estimating the market risk premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(3), pages 465-496, September.
  10. Guidi, Francesco, 2008. "Volatility and Long Term Relations in Equity Markets: Empirical Evidence from Germany, Switzerland, and the UK," MPRA Paper 11535, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  11. Laurent E. Calvet & Adlai J. Fisher, 2005. "Multifrequency News and Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 11441, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Jensen, Mark J & Maheu, John M, 2013. "Risk, Return and Volatility Feedback: A Bayesian Nonparametric Analysis," MPRA Paper 52132, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  13. Burgues, Alexander & Signori, Ombretta & Brière, Marie, 2009. "Volatility as an Asset Class for Long-Term Investors," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/9293, Paris Dauphine University.
  14. Brière, Marie & Burgues, Alexandre & Signori, Ombretta, 2010. "Volatility Exposure for Strategic Asset Allocation," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/7739, Paris Dauphine University.
  15. Jinho Bae, 2011. "Does knowing the volatility states affect the market risk premium?," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 83-94, February.

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