A Test of the International CAPM Using Business Cycles Indicators as Instrumental Variables
AbstractPrevious work by Dumas and Solnik (1993) has shown that a CAPM which incorporates foreign-exchange risk premia (a so-called 'international CAPM') is better capable empirically of explaining the structure of worldwide rates of return than does the classic CAPM. In the specification of that test, moments of rates of return were allowed to vary over time in relation to a number of lagged 'instrumental variables'. Dumas and Solnik used instrumental variables which were endogenous or 'internal' to the financial market (lagged world market portfolio rate of return, dividend yield, bond yield, short-term rate of interest). In the present paper, I use as instruments economic variables which are 'external' to the financial market, such as leading indicators of the business cycles. This is an attempt to explain the behavior of the international stock market on the basis of economically meaningful variables which capture 'the state of the economy'. I find that the leading indicators put together by Stock and Watson (NBER working paper no. 4014, 1992) as predictors of the U.S. business cycle also predict stock returns in the U.S., Germany, Japan and the United Kingdom. These instruments lead again to a rejection of the classic CAPM and no rejection of the international CAPM.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 4657.
Date of creation: Feb 1994
Date of revision:
Publication status: published as The Internationalization of Equity Markets, Jeffrey A. Frankel ed., pp. 23-50, (Chicago: University of Chicago Press: 1994).
Note: AP IFM
Contact details of provider:
Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Stambaugh, Robert F., 1988. "The information in forward rates : Implications for models of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 41-70, May.
- Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1989. "Business conditions and expected returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 23-49, November.
- Lars Peter Hansen & Ravi Jagannathan, 1990.
"Implications of security market data for models of dynamic economies,"
Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics
29, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Hansen, Lars Peter & Jagannathan, Ravi, 1991. "Implications of Security Market Data for Models of Dynamic Economies," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 225-62, April.
- Lars Peter Hansen & Ravi Jagannathan, 1990. "Implications of Security Market Data for Models of Dynamic Economies," NBER Technical Working Papers 0089, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Robert J. Barro, 1989.
"The Stock Market and Investment,"
NBER Working Papers
2925, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Canova, Fabio, 1993. "Sources and Propagation of International Business Cycles: Common Shocks or Transmission?," CEPR Discussion Papers 781, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- David Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1993.
"International Business Cycles: Theory and Evidence,"
NBER Working Papers
4493, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1993. "International Business Cycles: Theory and Evidence," Working Papers 93-21, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
- Harvey, Campbell R, 1991. " The World Price of Covariance Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 111-57, March.
- Fama, Eugene F, 1981. "Stock Returns, Real Activity, Inflation, and Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(4), pages 545-65, September.
- Fama, Eugene F. & Schwert, G. William, 1977. "Asset returns and inflation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 115-146, November.
- Baxter, M. & Crucini, M.J., 1990.
"Explaining Saving/Investment Correlation,"
RCER Working Papers
224, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Fama, Eugene F. & Gibbons, Michael R., 1982. "Inflation, real returns and capital investment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 297-323.
- Dumas, Bernard, 1992. "Dynamic Equilibrium and the Real Exchange Rate in a Spatially Separated World," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 153-80.
- Dumas, Bernard & Harvey, Campbell R. & Ruiz, Pierre, 2000.
"Are Correlations of Stock Returns Justified by Subsequent Changes in National Outputs?,"
00-2, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center.
- Dumas, Bernard & Harvey, Campbell R. & Ruiz, Pierre, 2003. "Are correlations of stock returns justified by subsequent changes in national outputs?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 777-811, November.
- Wayne E. Ferson & Campbell R. Harvey, 1999. "Economic, Financial, and Fundamental Global Risk In and Out of the EMU," NBER Working Papers 6967, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gangemi, Michael A. M. & Brooks, Robert D. & Faff, Robert W., 2000. "Modeling Australia's country risk: a country beta approach," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 259-276.
- Viviana Fernandez, 2006.
"The International CAPM and a Wavelet-Based Decomposition of Value at Risk,"
NBER Working Papers
12233, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Fernandez Viviana P, 2005. "The International CAPM and a Wavelet-Based Decomposition of Value at Risk," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(4), pages 1-37, December.
- Viviana Fern�ndez, 2005. "The International CAPM and a wavelet-based decomposition of Value at Risk," Documentos de Trabajo 203, Centro de Economía Aplicada, Universidad de Chile.
- Viviana Fernandez, 2005. "The International CAPM and a wavelet-based decomposition of Value at Risk," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp075, IIIS.
- Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 1994.
"Time-Varying World Market Integration,"
NBER Working Papers
4843, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gangemi, Michael & Brooks, Robert & Faff, Robert, 1999. "Mean reversion and the forecasting of country betas: a note," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 231-245.
- Mika Vaihekoski, 2000. "Unconditional international asset pricing models: empirical tests," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 71-88, Autumn.
- Gibson, Rajna & Mougeot, Nicolas, 2004. "The pricing of systematic liquidity risk: Empirical evidence from the US stock market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 157-178, January.
- Marina Emiris, 2002. "Measuring capital market integration," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Market functioning and central bank policy, volume 12, pages 200-221 Bank for International Settlements.
- Chambet, Anthony & Gibson, Rajna, 2008. "Financial integration, economic instability and trade structure in emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 654-675, June.
- Joaquim Pinto de Andrade & Vladimir Kuhl Teles, 2004.
"An Empirical Model of the Brazilian Country Risk - An Extension of the Beta Country Risk Model,"
Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings
284, Econometric Society.
- Joaquim Andrade & Vladimir Teles, 2006. "An empirical model of the Brazilian country risk -- an extension of the beta country risk model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(11), pages 1271-1278.
- Bange, Mary M. & Khang, Kenneth & Miller Jr., Thomas W., 2008. "Benchmarking the performance of recommended allocations to equities, bonds, and cash by international investment houses," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 363-386, June.
- Mohamed El Hedi Arouri, 2005. "Intégration financière et diversification internationale des portefeuilles," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 168(2), pages 115-132.
- Phylaktis, Kate & Ravazzolo, Fabiola, 2004. "Currency risk in emerging equity markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 317-339, September.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.