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A Test of the International CAPM Using Business Cycles Indicators as Instrumental Variables

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  • Bernard Dumas
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    Abstract

    Previous work by Dumas and Solnik (1993) has shown that a CAPM which incorporates foreign-exchange risk premia (a so-called 'international CAPM') is better capable empirically of explaining the structure of worldwide rates of return than does the classic CAPM. In the specification of that test, moments of rates of return were allowed to vary over time in relation to a number of lagged 'instrumental variables'. Dumas and Solnik used instrumental variables which were endogenous or 'internal' to the financial market (lagged world market portfolio rate of return, dividend yield, bond yield, short-term rate of interest). In the present paper, I use as instruments economic variables which are 'external' to the financial market, such as leading indicators of the business cycles. This is an attempt to explain the behavior of the international stock market on the basis of economically meaningful variables which capture 'the state of the economy'. I find that the leading indicators put together by Stock and Watson (NBER working paper no. 4014, 1992) as predictors of the U.S. business cycle also predict stock returns in the U.S., Germany, Japan and the United Kingdom. These instruments lead again to a rejection of the classic CAPM and no rejection of the international CAPM.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 4657.

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    Date of creation: Feb 1994
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    Publication status: published as The Internationalization of Equity Markets, Jeffrey A. Frankel ed., pp. 23-50, (Chicago: University of Chicago Press: 1994).
    Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:4657

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    1. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1989. "Business conditions and expected returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 23-49, November.
    2. Lars Peter Hansen & Ravi Jagannathan, 1990. "Implications of security market data for models of dynamic economies," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 29, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    3. Fama, Eugene F, 1981. "Stock Returns, Real Activity, Inflation, and Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(4), pages 545-65, September.
    4. Fama, Eugene F. & Gibbons, Michael R., 1982. "Inflation, real returns and capital investment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 297-323.
    5. Dumas, Bernard, 1992. "Dynamic Equilibrium and the Real Exchange Rate in a Spatially Separated World," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 153-80.
    6. Fama, Eugene F. & Schwert, G. William, 1977. "Asset returns and inflation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 115-146, November.
    7. Barro, Robert J, 1990. "The Stock Market and Investment," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(1), pages 115-31.
    8. Baxter, Marianne & Crucini, Mario J, 1993. "Explaining Saving-Investment Correlations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 416-36, June.
    9. David Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1993. "International Business Cycles: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 4493, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Stambaugh, Robert F., 1988. "The information in forward rates : Implications for models of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 41-70, May.
    11. Canova, Fabio, 1993. "Sources and Propagation of International Business Cycles: Common Shocks or Transmission?," CEPR Discussion Papers 781, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Harvey, Campbell R, 1991. " The World Price of Covariance Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 111-57, March.
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    Cited by:
    1. Fernandez Viviana P, 2005. "The International CAPM and a Wavelet-Based Decomposition of Value at Risk," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(4), pages 1-37, December.
    2. Joaquim Pinto de Andrade & Vladimir Kuhl Teles, 2004. "An Empirical Model of the Brazilian Country Risk - An Extension of the Beta Country Risk Model," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 284, Econometric Society.
    3. Phylaktis, Kate & Ravazzolo, Fabiola, 2004. "Currency risk in emerging equity markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 317-339, September.
    4. Marina Emiris, 2002. "Measuring capital market integration," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Market functioning and central bank policy, volume 12, pages 200-221 Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Gibson, Rajna & Mougeot, Nicolas, 2004. "The pricing of systematic liquidity risk: Empirical evidence from the US stock market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 157-178, January.
    6. Gangemi, Michael A. M. & Brooks, Robert D. & Faff, Robert W., 2000. "Modeling Australia's country risk: a country beta approach," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 259-276.
    7. Gangemi, Michael & Brooks, Robert & Faff, Robert, 1999. "Mean reversion and the forecasting of country betas: a note," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 231-245.
    8. Mohamed El Hedi Arouri, 2005. "Intégration financière et diversification internationale des portefeuilles," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 168(2), pages 115-132.
    9. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R, 1995. " Time-Varying World Market Integration," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 403-44, June.
    10. Wayne E. Ferson & Campbell R. Harvey, 1999. "Economic, Financial, and Fundamental Global Risk In and Out of the EMU," NBER Working Papers 6967, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Dumas, Bernard & Harvey, Campbell R. & Ruiz, Pierre, 2003. "Are correlations of stock returns justified by subsequent changes in national outputs?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 777-811, November.
    12. Chambet, Anthony & Gibson, Rajna, 2008. "Financial integration, economic instability and trade structure in emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 654-675, June.
    13. Mika Vaihekoski, 2000. "Unconditional international asset pricing models: empirical tests," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 71-88, Autumn.
    14. Bange, Mary M. & Khang, Kenneth & Miller Jr., Thomas W., 2008. "Benchmarking the performance of recommended allocations to equities, bonds, and cash by international investment houses," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 363-386, June.

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