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Is Disinflation Good for the Stock Market?

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Peter Blair Henry

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Abstract

When countries attempt to stabilize annual inflation rates that are greater than 40 percent, the domestic stock market appreciates by 24 percent on average. The present value of the long-run benefits to shareholders of reducing high inflation outweighs the present value of the short-run costs. In contrast, the average market response is economically weak and statistically insignificant, if the pre-stabilization inflation rate is less than 40 percent. Stock market responses also help predict the change in inflation and output in the year following stabilization efforts. This additional result indicates that the stock market evidence for the 81 episodes studied is not spurious.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 8289.

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Date of creation: May 2001
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:8289

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E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
F3 - International Economics - - International Finance

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    Other versions:
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Chari, Anusha & Henry, Peter B., 2006. "Firm-Specific Information and the Efficiency of Investment," Research Papers 1930, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Henry, Peter B., 2003. "Capital Account Liberalization, The Cost of Capital, and Economic Growth," Research Papers 1778, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Henry, Peter B. & Sasson, Diego, 2008. "Capital Account Liberalization, Real Wages, and Productivity," Research Papers 1988, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Gregory Price, 2008. "NEA Presidential Address: Black Economists of the World You Cite!!," The Review of Black Political Economy, Springer, vol. 35(1), pages 1-12, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Peter Blair Henry & Diego Sasson, 2009. "Capital Market Integration and Wages," NBER Working Papers 15204, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Serkan Arslanalp & Peter Blair Henry, 2002. "Debt Relief: What Do the Markets Think?," NBER Working Papers 9369, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Henry, Peter B., 2007. "Capital Account Liberalization: Theory, Evidence, and Speculation," Research Papers 1974, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Henry, Peter B. & Arslanalp, Serkan, 2003. "Is Debt Relief Efficient?," Research Papers 1837, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Henry, Peter B., 2003. "Commentary on Bekaert, Harvey, and Lundblad's "Equity Market Liberalization in Emerging Equity Markets"," Research Papers 1783, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business. [Downloadable!]
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