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Debt Relief: What Do the Markets Think?

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Author Info
Arslanalp, Serkan (Stanford U)
Henry, Peter B.

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Abstract

The stock market appreciates by an average of 60 percent in real dollar terms when countries announce debt relief agreements under the Brady Plan. In contrast, there is no significant increase in market value for a control group of countries that do not sign agreements. The results persist after controlling for IMF agreements, trade liberalizations, capital account liberalizations, and privatization programs. The stock market revaluations forecast higher future net resource transfers and GDP growth. While markets respond favorably to debt relief in the Brady countries, there is no evidence to suggest that current debt relief efforts for the Highly-Indebted Poor Countries (HIPCs) will achieve similar results.

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Paper provided by Stanford University, Graduate School of Business in its series Research Papers with number 1810.

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Date of creation: May 2003
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Handle: RePEc:ecl:stabus:1810

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Rafael La porta & Florencio Lopez-De-Silanes & Andrei Shleifer & Robert Vishny, 2002. "Investor Protection and Corporate Valuation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(3), pages 1147-1170, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Kremer, Michael, 1993. "The O-Ring Theory of Economic Development," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(3), pages 551-75, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Robert E. Hall & Charles I. Jones, 1999. "Why Do Some Countries Produce So Much More Output per Worker than Others?," NBER Working Papers 6564, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Jeffrey Sachs & Harry Huizinga, 1987. "U.S. Commercial Banks and the Developing Country Debt Crisis," NBER Working Papers 2455, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew Warner, 1995. "Economic Reform and the Process of Global Integration," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1995-1), pages 1-118. [Downloadable!]
  7. Peter Blair Henry, 2002. "Is Disinflation Good for the Stock Market?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(4), pages 1617-1648, 08. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Huizinga, Harry, 1993. "Official Credits to Developing Countries: Implicit Transfers to the Banks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(3), pages 430-44, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Bong-Chan Kho & Dong Lee & Rene M. Stulz, 2000. "U.S. Banks, Crises, and Bailouts: From Mexico to LTCM," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 28-31, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Paul R. Krugman, 1989. "Financing vs. Forgiving a Debt Overhang," NBER Working Papers 2486, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Paul R. Krugman, 1989. "Market-Based Debt-Reduction Schemes," NBER Working Papers 2587, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Peter Blair Henry, 2003. "Capital Account Liberalization, The Cost of Capital, and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 9488, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Arslanalp, Serkan & Henry, Peter B., 2006. "Debt Relief," Research Papers 1931, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business. [Downloadable!]
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    • Serkan Arslanalp & Peter Blair Henry, 2006. "Debt Relief," NBER Working Papers 12187, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Jeffrey Sachs & Andrew Warner, 1995. "Economic Reform and the Progress of Global Integration," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1733, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
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  19. Michael Kremer & Seema Jayachandran, 2002. "Odious Debt," NBER Working Papers 8953, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Myers, Stewart C., 1977. "Determinants of corporate borrowing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 147-175, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Arslanalp, Serkan & Henry, Peter B., 2003. "The World's Poorest Countries: Debt Relief or Aid?," Research Papers 1809, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business. [Downloadable!]
  2. Andrei Shleifer, 2003. "Will the Sovereign Debt Market Survive?," NBER Working Papers 9493, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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