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Debt Relief: What Do the Markets Think?

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  • Serkan Arslanalp
  • Peter Blair Henry

Abstract

The stock market appreciates by an average of 60 percent in real dollar terms when countries announce debt relief agreements under the Brady Plan. In contrast, there is no significant increase in market value for a control group of countries that do not sign agreements. The results persist after controlling for IMF agreements, trade liberalizations, capital account liberalizations, and privatization programs. The stock market revaluations forecast higher future net resource transfers and GDP growth. While markets respond favorably to debt relief in the Brady countries, there is no evidence to suggest that current debt relief efforts for the Highly-Indebted Poor Countries (HIPCs) will achieve similar results.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 9369.

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Date of creation: Dec 2002
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:9369

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  17. Serkan Arslanalp & Peter Blair Henry, 2006. "Debt Relief," NBER Working Papers 12187, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Arslanalp, Serkan & Henry, Peter B., 2006. "Debt Relief," Research Papers 1931, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
  18. Robert E. Hall & Charles I. Jones, 1999. "Why Do Some Countries Produce So Much More Output Per Worker Than Others?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 114(1), pages 83-116, February.
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Cited by:
  1. Tito Cordella & Luca Antonio Ricci & Marta Ruiz-Arranz, 2005. "Debt Overhang or Debt Irrelevance? Revisiting the Debt Growth Link," IMF Working Papers 05/223, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Andrei Shleifer, 2003. "Will the Sovereign Debt Market Survive?," NBER Working Papers 9493, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Arslanalp, Serkan & Henry, Peter B., 2003. "The World's Poorest Countries: Debt Relief or Aid?," Research Papers 1809, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.

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