IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/9369.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Debt Relief: What Do the Markets Think?

Author

Listed:
  • Serkan Arslanalp
  • Peter Blair Henry

Abstract

The stock market appreciates by an average of 60 percent in real dollar terms when countries announce debt relief agreements under the Brady Plan. In contrast, there is no significant increase in market value for a control group of countries that do not sign agreements. The results persist after controlling for IMF agreements, trade liberalizations, capital account liberalizations, and privatization programs. The stock market revaluations forecast higher future net resource transfers and GDP growth. While markets respond favorably to debt relief in the Brady countries, there is no evidence to suggest that current debt relief efforts for the Highly-Indebted Poor Countries (HIPCs) will achieve similar results.

Suggested Citation

  • Serkan Arslanalp & Peter Blair Henry, 2002. "Debt Relief: What Do the Markets Think?," NBER Working Papers 9369, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:9369
    Note: CF IFM
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w9369.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michael Kremer, 1993. "The O-Ring Theory of Economic Development," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(3), pages 551-575.
    2. Paul R. Krugman, 1988. "Market-Based Debt-Reduction Schemes," NBER Working Papers 2587, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, December.
    4. Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1997. "A Survey of Corporate Governance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(2), pages 737-783, June.
    5. Andrei Shleifer, 2003. "Will the Sovereign Debt Market Survive?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(2), pages 85-90, May.
    6. Jeffrey A. Frankel., 1994. "The Internationalization of Equity Markets: Introduction," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C94-033, University of California at Berkeley.
    7. La Porta, Rafael & Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1997. "Legal Determinants of External Finance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 1131-1150, July.
    8. Fischer, Stanley, 1987. "Sharing the Burden of the International Debt Crisis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(2), pages 165-170, May.
    9. Rafael La Porta & Florencio Lopez‐De‐Silanes & Andrei Shleifer & Robert Vishny, 2002. "Investor Protection and Corporate Valuation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(3), pages 1147-1170, June.
    10. Peter Blair Henry, 2003. "Capital-Account Liberalization, the Cost of Capital, and Economic Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(2), pages 91-96, May.
    11. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Huizinga, Harry, 1993. "Official Credits to Developing Countries: Implicit Transfers to the Banks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(3), pages 430-444, August.
    12. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew Warner, 1995. "Economic Reform and the Process of Global Integration," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1, 25th A), pages 1-118.
    13. Dong Lee & Bong-Chan Kho & Rene M. Stulz, 2000. "U.S. Banks, Crises, and Bailouts: From Mexico to LTCM," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 28-31, May.
    14. Seema Jayachandran & Michael Kremer, 2006. "Odious Debt," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(1), pages 82-92, March.
    15. Collins, Susan M, 1990. "Lessons from Korean Economic Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 104-107, May.
    16. Bruno, Michael & Easterly, William, 1996. "Inflation's Children: Tales of Crises That Beget Reforms," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 213-217, May.
    17. Jeffrey Sachs & Harry Huizinga, 1987. "U.S. Commercial Banks and the Developing-Country Debt Crisis," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 18(2), pages 555-606.
    18. Robert E. Hall & Charles I. Jones, 1999. "Why do Some Countries Produce So Much More Output Per Worker than Others?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 114(1), pages 83-116.
    19. John Williamson, 1994. "The Political Economy of Policy Reform," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 68, October.
    20. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1994. "The Internationalization of Equity Markets," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number fran94-1, March.
    21. Tesar, Linda L & Werner, Ingrid M, 1995. "U.S. Equity Investment in Emerging Stock Markets," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 9(1), pages 109-129, January.
    22. G. A. Karolyi & Rene M. Stulz (ed.), 2003. "International Capital Markets," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, volume 0, number 2453.
    23. Nancy Birdsall & John Williamson, 2002. "Delivering on Debt Relief: From IMF Gold to a New Aid Architecture," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 337, October.
    24. Arslanalp, Serkan & Henry, Peter B., 2006. "Debt Relief," Research Papers 1931, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
    25. Peter Blair Henry, 2002. "Is Disinflation Good for the Stock Market?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(4), pages 1617-1648, August.
    26. Krugman, Paul, 1988. "Financing vs. forgiving a debt overhang," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 253-268, November.
    27. Bulow, Jeremy & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1990. "Cleaning Up Third World Debt without Getting Taken to the Cleaners," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 31-42, Winter.
    28. Jeremy Bulow, 2002. "First World Governments and Third World Debt: A Bankruptcy Court for Sovereign Lending?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 33(1), pages 229-256.
    29. Henry, Peter Blair, 2000. "Do stock market liberalizations cause investment booms?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1-2), pages 301-334.
    30. Linda L. Tesar & Rene M. Stulz & Stephen Friedman & George N. Hatsopoulos, 1999. "The Role of Equity Markets in International Capital Flows," NBER Chapters, in: International Capital Flows, pages 235-306, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    31. Peter Blair Henry, 2000. "Stock Market Liberalization, Economic Reform, and Emerging Market Equity Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 529-564, April.
    32. Myers, Stewart C., 1977. "Determinants of corporate borrowing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 147-175, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets: A Survey," NBER Working Papers 16125, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Arslanalp, Serkan & Henry, Peter B., 2003. "The World's Poorest Countries: Debt Relief or Aid?," Research Papers 1809, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
    3. Andrei Shleifer, 2003. "Will the Sovereign Debt Market Survive?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(2), pages 85-90, May.
    4. Mr. Tito Cordella & Mr. Luca A Ricci & Marta Ruiz-Arranz, 2005. "Debt Overhang or Debt Irrelevance? Revisiting the Debt-Growth Link," IMF Working Papers 2005/223, International Monetary Fund.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Serkan Arslanalp & Peter Blair Henry, 2005. "Is Debt Relief Efficient?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(2), pages 1017-1051, April.
    2. Peter Blair Henry, 2007. "Capital Account Liberalization: Theory, Evidence, and Speculation," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 45(4), pages 887-935, December.
    3. Peter Henry, 2007. "Capital Account Liberalization: Theory, Evidence, and Speculation," Discussion Papers 07-004, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
    4. Henry, Peter B. & Arslanalp, Serkan, 2003. "Helping the Poor to Help Themselves: Debt Relief or Aid?," Research Papers 1838, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
    5. Arslanalp, Serkan & Henry, Peter B., 2003. "The World's Poorest Countries: Debt Relief or Aid?," Research Papers 1809, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
    6. Serkan Arslanalp & Peter Blair Henry, 2006. "Debt Relief," NBER Working Papers 12187, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
      • Arslanalp, Serkan & Henry, Peter B., 2006. "Debt Relief," Research Papers 1931, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
    7. Chari, Anusha & Blair Henry, Peter, 2008. "Firm-specific information and the efficiency of investment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(3), pages 636-655, March.
    8. Chari, Anusha & Henry, Peter B., 2002. "Risk Sharing and Asset Prices: Evidence from a Natural Experiment," Research Papers 1736r, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
    9. Anusha Chari & Peter Blair Henry, 2001. "Stock Market Liberalizations and the Repricing of Systematic Risk," NBER Working Papers 8265, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Peter Blair Henry, 2001. "Is Disinflation Good for the Stock Market?," NBER Working Papers 8289, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Henry, Peter B. & Lorentzen, Peter Lombard, 2003. "Domestic Capital Market Reform and Access to Global Finance: Making Markets Work," Research Papers 1820, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
    12. Peter Blair Henry & Diego Sasson, 2008. "Capital Account Liberalization, Real Wages, and Productivity," NBER Working Papers 13880, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Fogel, Kathy & Morck, Randall & Yeung, Bernard, 2008. "Big business stability and economic growth: Is what's good for General Motors good for America?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 83-108, July.
    14. Anusha Chari & Peter Blair Henry, 2004. "Is the Invisible Hand Discerning or Indiscriminate? Investment and Stock Prices in the Aftermath of Capital Account Liberalizations," NBER Working Papers 10318, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Anusha Chari & Peter Blair Henry, 2004. "Risk Sharing and Asset Prices: Evidence from a Natural Experiment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(3), pages 1295-1324, June.
    16. Henry, Peter B., 2004. "Perspective Paper on Financial Instability," Research Papers 1866, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
    17. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 25, pages 1439-1520, Elsevier.
    18. Greene, William H. & Hornstein, Abigail S. & White, Lawrence J., 2009. "Multinationals do it better: Evidence on the efficiency of corporations' capital budgeting," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 703-720, December.
    19. Henry, Peter B., 2003. "Commentary on Bekaert, Harvey, and Lundblad's "Equity Market Liberalization in Emerging Equity Markets"," Research Papers 1783, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
    20. Peter Blair Henry, 2002. "Is Disinflation Good for the Stock Market?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(4), pages 1617-1648, August.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:9369. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.