Catastrophic Natural Disasters and Economic Growth
AbstractWe examine the short and long run average causal impact of catastrophic natural disasters on economic growth by combining information from comparative case studies. We assess the counterfactual of the cases studied by constructing synthetic control groups taking advantage of the fact that the timing of large sudden natural disasters is an exogenous event. We find that only extremely large disasters have a negative effect on output both in the short and long run. However, we also show that this result from two events where radical political revolutions followed the natural disasters. Once we control for these political changes, even extremely large disasters do not display any significant effect on economic growth. We also find that smaller, but still very large natural disasters, have no discernible effect on output in the short run or in the long run.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 201006.
Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: 28 Apr 2010
Date of revision:
Other versions of this item:
- Eduardo Cavallo & Sebastian Galiani & Ilan Noy & Juan Pantano, 2013. "Catastrophic Natural Disasters and Economic Growth," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1549-1561, December.
- Eduardo A. Cavallo & Ilan Noy & Juan Pantano & Sebastián Galiani, 2010. "Catastrophic Natural Disasters and Economic Growth," IDB Publications 6818, Inter-American Development Bank.
- Eduardo Cavallo & Sebastian Galiani & Ilan Noy & Juan Pantano, 2010. "Catastrophic Natural Disasters and Economic Growth," Research Department Publications 4671, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
- O40 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
- O47 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Measurement of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-06-04 (All new papers)
- NEP-DEV-2010-06-04 (Development)
- NEP-ENE-2010-06-04 (Energy Economics)
- NEP-ENV-2010-06-04 (Environmental Economics)
- NEP-FDG-2010-06-04 (Financial Development & Growth)
- NEP-HEA-2010-06-04 (Health Economics)
- NEP-LAM-2010-06-04 (Central & South America)
- NEP-RES-2010-06-04 (Resource Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Barro, Robert, 2006. "Rare Disasters and Asset Markets in the Twentieth Century," Scholarly Articles 3208215, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Robert J. Barro, 2009.
"Rare Disasters, Asset Prices, and Welfare Costs,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 99(1), pages 243-64, March.
- N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1990.
"A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth,"
NBER Working Papers
3541, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Abadie, Alberto & Diamond, Alexis & Hainmueller, Jens, 2010. "Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of Californiaâ€™s Tobacco Control Program," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 105(490), pages 493-505.
- Raddatz, Claudio, 2007.
"Are external shocks responsible for the instability of output in low-income countries?,"
Journal of Development Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 155-187, September.
- Raddatz, Claudio, 2005. "Are external shocks responsible for the instability of output in low income countries?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3680, The World Bank.
- Ricardo J. Caballero & Mohamad L. Hammour, 1991.
"The Cleansing Effect of Recessions,"
NBER Working Papers
3922, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Matthew E. Kahn, 2005. "The Death Toll from Natural Disasters: The Role of Income, Geography, and Institutions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(2), pages 271-284, May.
- Acemoglu, Daron & Johnson, Simon & Robinson, James A., 2005. "Institutions as a Fundamental Cause of Long-Run Growth," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 6, pages 385-472 Elsevier.
- Yang Dean, 2008.
"Coping with Disaster: The Impact of Hurricanes on International Financial Flows, 1970-2002,"
The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy,
De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-45, June.
- Dean Yang, 2006. "Coping with Disaster: The Impact of Hurricanes on International Financial Flows, 1970-2002," NBER Working Papers 12794, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Eduardo Cavallo & Ilan Noy, 2009.
"The Economics of Natural Disasters - A Survey,"
200919, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
- Eduardo Cavallo & Ilan Noy, 2009. "The Economics of Natural Disasters: A Survey," Research Department Publications 4649, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
- Eduardo A. Cavallo & Ilan Noy, 2009. "The Economics of Natural Disasters: A Survey," IDB Publications 6779, Inter-American Development Bank.
- Ilan Noy, 2007.
"The Macroeconomic Consequences of Disasters,"
200707, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
Blog mentionsAs found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page. reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Web Technician).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.