Catastrophic Natural Disasters and Economic Growth
AbstractThis paper examines the short and long-run average causal impact of catastrophic natural disasters on economic growth by combining information from comparative case studies. The counterfactual of the cases studied is assessed by constructing synthetic control groups, taking advantage of the fact that the timing of large sudden natural disasters is an exogenous event. It is found that only extremely large disasters have a negative effect on output, both in the short and long run. However, this result appears in two events where radical political revolutions followed the natural disasters. Once these political changes are controlled for, even extremely large disasters do not display any significant effect on economic growth. It is also found that smaller, but still very large natural disasters, have no discernible effect on output.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department in its series Research Department Publications with number 4671.
Date of creation: Jun 2010
Date of revision:
Natural Disasters; Political Change; Economic Growth and Causal Effects;
Other versions of this item:
- Eduardo Cavallo & Sebastian Galiani & Ilan Noy & Juan Pantano, 2010. "Catastrophic Natural Disasters and Economic Growth," Working Papers 201006, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
- O40 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
- O47 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Measurement of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-06-26 (All new papers)
- NEP-DEV-2010-06-26 (Development)
- NEP-ENE-2010-06-26 (Energy Economics)
- NEP-FDG-2010-06-26 (Financial Development & Growth)
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