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Haircuts: Estimating investor losses in sovereign debt restructurings, 1998-2005

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  • Sturzenegger, Federico
  • Zettelmeyer, Jeromin

Abstract

We calculate investor losses ("haircuts") and recovery values in recent debt restructurings in Russia, Ukraine, Pakistan, Ecuador, Argentina, and Uruguay. Haircuts are computed as the percentage difference between the present values of old and new instruments, discounted at the yield prevailing immediately after the exchange. Recovery value means value received in terms of outstanding principal. We find average NPV haircuts ranging from 13% (Uruguay external exchange) to 73% (2005 Argentina exchange); recovery values range from 30% to about 75%. We also find within-exchange variations in haircuts and recovery values, depending on the bond tendered. With a few exceptions, domestic residents do not appear to have been treated systematically better (or worse) than foreign residents.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Money and Finance.

Volume (Year): 27 (2008)
Issue (Month): 5 (September)
Pages: 780-805

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:27:y:2008:i:5:p:780-805

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443

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  1. Peter H. Lindert & Peter J. Morton, 1989. "How Sovereign Debt Has Worked," NBER Chapters, in: Developing Country Debt and Economic Performance, Volume 1: The International Financial System, pages 39-106 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Eichengreen, Barry & Portes, Richard, 1985. "Debt and Default in the 1930s: Causes and Consequences," CEPR Discussion Papers 75, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Jeromin Zettelmeyer & Federico Sturzenegger, 2005. "Haircuts," 2005 Meeting Papers 18, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  4. Jochen R. Andritzky & Manmohan Singh, 2005. "Overpricing in Emerging Market Credit-Default-Swap Contracts," IMF Working Papers 05/125, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Eichengreen, Barry & Ruehl, Christoph, 2000. "The Bail-In Problem: Systematic Goals, Ad Hoc Means," CEPR Discussion Papers 2427, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Merrick Jr., John J., 2001. "Crisis dynamics of implied default recovery ratios: Evidence from Russia and Argentina," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(10), pages 1921-1939, October.
  7. Darrell Duffie & Lasse Heje Pedersen & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2003. "Modeling Sovereign Yield Spreads: A Case Study of Russian Debt," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(1), pages 119-159, 02.
  8. Jarrow, Robert A & Lando, David & Turnbull, Stuart M, 1997. "A Markov Model for the Term Structure of Credit Risk Spreads," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(2), pages 481-523.
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