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Defaults in the 90´s: Factbook and Preliminary Lessons

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Federico Sturzenegger
Abstract

The literature has identified at least five approaches to the determinants of the choice of exchange rate regimes: i) optimal currency area theory; ii) exchange rate policy and the absortion of real and nominal shocks; iii) exchange rate rules as a policy crutch in credibility-challenged economies; iv) the impossible trinity in light of increasing financial globalization; and v) the balance sheet exposure to exchange rate changes in financially dollarized economies. Using both a de facto and a de jure regime classification, we test the empirical relevance of these approaches simultaneously. We find overall empirical support for all of them, although their relative relevance varies substantially between industrial and non-industrial economies. We show that regime choices, as well as deviations between actual and reported policies, can be accurately predicted by a small number of economic and political characteristics of each country. When regimes are correctly characterized, they display no time trend, suggesting that the trends typically highlighted in the exchange rate regime debate can be traced back to the evolution of their natural determinants

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Paper provided by Universidad Torcuato Di Tella in its series Business School Working Papers with number veintidos.

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Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: 2002
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Handle: RePEc:udt:wpbsdt:veintidos

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  3. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems," International Finance Discussion Papers 544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  4. Homi Kharas & Brian Pinto & Sergei Ulatov, 2001. "An Analysis of Russia's 1998 Meltdown: Fundamentals and Market Signals," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 37(2001-1), pages 1-68. [Downloadable!]
  5. Luis Felipe Cespedes & Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 2000. "Balance Sheets and Exchange Rate Policy," NBER Working Papers 7840, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 1998. "Financial Fragility and the Exchange Rate Regime," NBER Working Papers 6469, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Ozler, Sule, 1992. "The evolution of credit terms : An empirical study of commercial bank lending to developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 79-97, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Reuven Glick & Michael Hutchison, 1999. "Banking and currency crises; how common are twins?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Sep. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Eichengreen, Barry & Ruehl, Christoph, 2000. "The Bail-In Problem: Systematic Goals, Ad Hoc Means," CEPR Discussion Papers 2427, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Sebastian Edwards, 2001. "Does the Current Account Matter?," NBER Working Papers 8275, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," NBER Working Papers 3120, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Darrell Duffie & Lasse Heje Pedersen & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2003. "Modeling Sovereign Yield Spreads: A Case Study of Russian Debt," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(1), pages 119-159, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Yunyong Thaicharoen & Törbjörn I. Becker & Anthony J. Richards, 2001. "Bond Restructuring and Moral Hazard: Are Collective Action Clauses Costly?," IMF Working Papers 01/92, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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