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Anatomy of a Twin Crisis

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Author Info
Raphael H. Solomon
Abstract

The author presents a model of a twin crisis, in which foreign and domestic residents play a banking game. Both "honest" and run equilibria of the post-deposit subgame exist; some run equilibria lead to a currency crisis, as agents convert domestic currency to foreign currency. In the subgame, sunspot variables can affect the equilibrium. The author calculates the unique equilibrium of the game numerically, taking into account the possible realizations of the sunspot variables. He also calibrates the model to the Turkish economy, providing insight into the Turkish twin crisis of 2001.

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File URL: http://www.bankofcanada.ca/en/res/wp/2003/wp03-41.pdf
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Paper provided by Bank of Canada in its series Working Papers with number 03-41.

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Length: 44 pages
Date of creation: 2003
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Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:03-41

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Mortgages

References listed on IDEAS
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    Other versions:
  3. Barry Eichengreen & Richard Portes, 1989. "The Anatomy of Financial Crises," NBER Working Papers 2126, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Enrica Detragiache & Asli Demirgüç-Kunt, 1997. "The Determinants of Banking Crises - Evidence from Developing and Developed Countries," IMF Working Papers 97/106, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Paul Krugman, 1999. "Balance Sheets, the Transfer Problem, and Financial Crises," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 459-472, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 1998. "Financial Fragility and the Exchange Rate Regime," NBER Working Papers 6469, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Temzelides, Theodosios, 1997. "Evolution, coordination, and banking panics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 163-183, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Aumann, Robert J., 1974. "Subjectivity and correlation in randomized strategies," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 67-96, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Reuven Glick & Ramon Moreno & Mark Spiegel, 2001. "Financial crises in emerging markets," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar. 23. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Reuven Glick & Michael Hutchison, 1999. "Banking and currency crises; how common are twins?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Sep. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Velasco, Andres, 1987. "Financial crises and balance of payments crises : A simple model of the southern cone experience," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1-2), pages 263-283, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    Other versions:
  17. Allen, Franklin & Gale, Douglas, 2000. "Optimal currency crises," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 177-230, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-25, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1986. "Rational and Self-fulfilling Balance-of-Payments Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(1), pages 72-81, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Michael J. Brennan. and H. Henry Cao., 1997. "International Portfolio Investment Flows," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-271, University of California at Berkeley. [Downloadable!]
  21. Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 1998. "Financial Crises in Emerging Markets," NBER Working Papers 6606, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Feenstra, Robert C., 1986. "Functional equivalence between liquidity costs and the utility of money," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 271-291, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Cooper, Russell & Ross, Thomas W., 1998. "Bank runs: Liquidity costs and investment distortions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 27-38, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  24. Roberto Chang & Andrés Velasco, 2001. "A Model Of Financial Crises In Emerging Markets," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 116(2), pages 489-517, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  25. James Peck & Karl Shell, 2003. "Equilibrium Bank Runs," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(1), pages 103-123, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Chao Gu, 2007. "Asymmetric Information and Bank Runs," Working Papers 0721, Department of Economics, University of Missouri. [Downloadable!]
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