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Currency crises in Asia: a multivariate logit approach

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  • Jacobs, Jan P.A.M.
  • Kuper, Gerard H.
  • Lestano

    (Groningen University)

Abstract

Indicators of financial crisis generally do not have a good track record. This paper presents an early warning system (EWS) for six countries in Asia in which indicators do work. Our binary choice model, which has been estimated for the period 1970:01?2001.12, has the following features. We extract a full list of currency crisis indicators from the literature, apply factor analysis to combine the indicators, and introduce dynamics. The quality of the EWS is assessed both in-sample and out-of-sample. We find that money growth (M1 and M2), national savings, and import growth correlate with currency crises.

Suggested Citation

  • Jacobs, Jan P.A.M. & Kuper, Gerard H. & Lestano, 2005. "Currency crises in Asia: a multivariate logit approach," CCSO Working Papers 200506, University of Groningen, CCSO Centre for Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:gro:rugccs:200506
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Dieter Gerdesmeier & Hans‐Eggert Reimers & Barbara Roffia, 2010. "Asset Price Misalignments and the Role of Money and Credit," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(3), pages 377-407, December.
    2. Bauer, Christian & Herz, Bernhard & Karb, Volker, 2007. "Are twin currency and debt crises special?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 59-84, April.
    3. de Haan, Leo & van den End, Jan Willem, 2018. "The signalling content of asset prices for inflation: Implications for quantitative easing," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 45-63.
    4. Mete Feridun, 2006. "Impact of Liquidity on Speculative Pressure in the Exchange Market," Discussion Paper Series 2006_24, Department of Economics, Loughborough University, revised Dec 2006.
    5. Cipollini, A. & Kapetanios, G., 2009. "Forecasting financial crises and contagion in Asia using dynamic factor analysis," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 188-200, March.
    6. Dieter Gerdesmeier & Hans-Eggert Reimers & Barbara Roffia, 2011. "Early Warning Indicators for Asset Price Booms," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 1, pages 1-19, June.
    7. Boonman, Tjeerd M. & Jacobs, Jan P.A.M. & Kuper, Gerard H., 2012. "The Global Financial Crisis and currency crises in Latin America," Research Report 12005-EEF, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
    8. Cipollini, A. & Kapetanios, G., 2009. "Forecasting financial crises and contagion in Asia using dynamic factor analysis," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 188-200, March.
    9. Medina Moral, Eva & Salvador Perucha, David, 2018. "Medición de la vulnerabilidad monetaria en el área latinoamericana bajo un enfoque de señales ?móviles?/Measurement of Monetary Vulnerability in the Latin American Area using a," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 36, pages 603-634, Mayo.
    10. Yanping Zhao & Jakob Haan & Bert Scholtens & Haizhen Yang, 2014. "Sudden Stops and Currency Crashes," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(4), pages 660-685, September.
    11. Reza Siregar & Victor Pontines, 2004. "Successful and Unsuccessful Attacks: Evaluating the Stability of the East Asian Currencies," Centre for International Economic Studies Working Papers 2004-04, University of Adelaide, Centre for International Economic Studies.
    12. Mete Feridun & Selami Sezgin, 2008. "Regional Underdevelopment And Terrorism: The Case Of South Eastern Turkey," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(3), pages 225-233.
    13. K. Batu Tunay, 2010. "Banking Crises and Early Warning Systems: A Model Suggestion for Turkish Banking Sector," Journal of BRSA Banking and Financial Markets, Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency, vol. 4(1), pages 9-46.
    14. Mete Feridun, 2007. "Determinants of Currency Crises in Emerging Markets: An Empirical Investigation on Turkey," Discussion Paper Series 2007_01, Department of Economics, Loughborough University, revised Jan 2007.
    15. San Martín Albizuri, Nerea & Rodríguez Castellanos, Arturo, 2008. "¿Reflejan los índices de riesgo país las variables relevantes en el desencadenamiento de las crisis externas? Un análisis sobre el periodo 1994-2001," Cuadernos de Gestión, Universidad del País Vasco - Instituto de Economía Aplicada a la Empresa (IEAE).
    16. Yanping Zhao & Jakob Haan & Bert Scholtens & Haizhen Yang, 2014. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises: Are They the Same in Different Exchange Rate Regimes?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 25(5), pages 937-957, November.
    17. Tjeerd M. Boonman & Jan P.A.M. Jacobs & Gerard H. Kuper, 2011. "Why didn't the Global Financial Crisis hit Latin America?," CIRANO Working Papers 2011s-63, CIRANO.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C35 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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