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Indicators of financial crises do work! An early-warning system for six Asian countries

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  • Lestano

    (Department of Economics University of Groningen)

  • Jan Jacobs

    (Department of Economics University of Groningen)

  • Gerard H. Kuper

    (Department of Economics University of Groningen)

Abstract

Indicators of financial crisis generally do not have a good track record. This paper presents an early warning system for six countries in Asia, in which indicators do work.We distinguish three types of financial crises, currency crises, banking crises and debt crises, and extract four groups of indicators from the literature—external, financial, domestic (real and public), and global indicators—that are likely to affect the probability of financial crises. The significance of the indicator groups is tested in a multivariate logit model on a panel of six Asian countries for the period 1970:01-2001:12. An additional feature is that we examine four different currency crisis dating definitions. A within-sample signal extraction experiment reveals that some currency crises dating schemes outperform others.

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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series International Finance with number 0409004.

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Date of creation: 08 Sep 2004
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Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpif:0409004

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Keywords: financial crises; currency crises; banking crises; debt crises; early warning system; panel data; multivariate logit; factor analysis;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Elena-Ivona Dumitrescu & Bertrand Candelon & Christophe Hurlin & Franz C. Palm, 2012. "Multivariate Dynamic Probit Models: An Application to Financial Crises Mutation," Working Papers halshs-00630036, HAL.
  2. Eric Tymoigne, 2010. "Detecting Ponzi Finance: An Evolutionary Approach to the Measure of Financial Fragility," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_605, Levy Economics Institute.
  3. Candelon Bertrand & Dumitrescu Elena-Ivona & Hurlin Christophe, 2010. "How to evaluate an Early Warning System? Towards a United Statistical Framework for Assessing Financial Crises Forecasting Methods," Research Memorandum 046, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
  4. Maghyereh, Aktham I. & Awartani, Basel, 2014. "Bank distress prediction: Empirical evidence from the Gulf Cooperation Council countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 126-147.
  5. Reza Siregar & Victor Pontines, 2004. "Successful and Unsuccessful Attacks: Evaluating the Stability of the East Asian Currencies," Centre for International Economic Studies Working Papers 2004-04, University of Adelaide, Centre for International Economic Studies.
  6. Benedikt Goderis & Vasso P. Ioannidou, 2006. "Do High Interest Rates Defend Currencies During Speculative Attacks? New Evidence," Economics Series Working Papers WPS/2006-11, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  7. Ari Tjahjawandita & Tito Dimas Pradono & Rullan Rinaldi, 2009. "Spatial Contagion of Global Financial Crisis," Working Papers in Economics and Development Studies (WoPEDS) 200906, Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University, revised Aug 2009.
  8. van den Berg, Jeroen & Candelon, Bertrand & Urbain, Jean-Pierre, 2008. "A cautious note on the use of panel models to predict financial crises," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 101(1), pages 80-83, October.
  9. Ari, Ali, 2008. "An Early Warning Signals Approach for Currency Crises: The Turkish Case," MPRA Paper 25858, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2009.
  10. Jan P.A.M. Jacobs & Gerard H. Kuper & Lestano, 2004. "Currency crises in Asia: A multivariate logit approach," International Finance 0409005, EconWPA.
  11. Jianping Shi & Yu Gao, 2010. "A study on KLR financial crisis early-warning model," Frontiers of Economics in China, Springer, vol. 5(2), pages 254-275, June.
  12. Jo-Hui Chen & Chih-Sean Chen, 2012. "The study of contagious paces of financial crises," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 46(6), pages 1825-1846, October.
  13. Blix Grimaldi, Marianna, 2010. "Detecting and interpreting financial stress in the euro area," Working Paper Series 1214, European Central Bank.
  14. Matkovskyy, Roman, 2013. "To the Problem of Financial Safety Estimation: the Index of Financial Safety of Turkey," MPRA Paper 47673, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  15. Ari, Ali, 2012. "Early warning systems for currency crises: The Turkish case," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 391-410.
  16. Casu, Barbara & Clare, Andrew & Saleh, Nashwa, 2011. "Towards a new model for early warning signals for systemic financial fragility and near crises: an application to OECD countries," MPRA Paper 37043, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  17. Yucel, Eray, 2011. "A Review and Bibliography of Early Warning Models," MPRA Paper 32893, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  18. Martin Melecky, 2007. "Compounded Effects of External Crises on GDP Growth," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(4), pages 642-659, December.
  19. Matthew S. Yiu & Alex Ho & Lu Jin, 2009. "Econometric Approach to Early Warnings of Vulnerability in the Banking System and Currency Markets for Hong Kong and Other EMEAP Economies," Working Papers 0908, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
  20. Matkovskyy, Roman, 2012. "The Index of the Financial Safety (IFS) of South Africa and Bayesian Estimates for IFS Vector-Autoregressive Model," MPRA Paper 42173, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  21. Dungey, Mardi & Jacobs, Jan & Lestano, 2010. "Financial crises in Asia: concordance by asset market or country?," Working Papers 10575, University of Tasmania, School of Economics and Finance, revised 01 Nov 2010.
  22. Vesna Bucevska, 2011. "An analysis of financial crisis by an early warning system model: The case of the EU candidate countries," Business and Economic Horizons (BEH), Prague Development Center, vol. 4(1), pages 13-26, January.

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