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Do the Secondary Markets Believe in Life After Debt?

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Author Info
Vassilis A. Hajivassiliou (Cowles Foundation, Yale University)

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Abstract

This paper employs panel-data econometric techniques to explore the relations between measures of credit worthiness and the debt discounts on the secondary markets. It investigates empirically whether the secondary market discounts reflect a history of past repayments problems or whether they anticipate future debt crises. The answer to this question has implications about the desirability of debt relief. The main finding is that the secondary markets do not seem rapidly to absorb economic information, which suggests that they are still in their evolutionary stage and are not very efficient. The estimated models are also used to analyze issues in the international finance literature.

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File URL: http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/P/cd/d09a/d0911.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Cowles Foundation, Yale University in its series Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers with number 911.

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Length: 40 pages
Date of creation: May 1989
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:911

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Related research
Keywords: Debt crisis; debt relief; international finance;

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  1. Mamoru Kaneko & Jacek Prokop, 1993. "A game theoretical approach to the international debt overhang," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 1-24, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Lestano & Jan Jacobs & Gerard H. Kuper, 2004. "Indicators of financial crises do work! An early-warning system for six Asian countries," International Finance 0409004, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Peter Hjertholm, 1999. "Analytical History of Heavily Indebted Poor Country (HIPC) Debt Sustainability Targets," Discussion Papers 00-03, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  4. Peter Rowland, . "Buyback of Colombian Sovereign Debt," Borradores de Economia 331, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
  5. Barbone, Luca & Forni, Lorenzo, 1997. "Are markets learning? : behavior in the secondary market for Brady bonds," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1734, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  6. Hajivassiliou, 1993. "A Simulation Estimation Analysis of the External Debt Crises of Developing Countries," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1057, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Cumby, Robert & Pastine, Tuvana, 2001. "Emerging Market Debt: Measuring Credit Quality and Examining Relative Pricing," CEPR Discussion Papers 2866, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Peter Rowland, 2004. "The Colombian Sovereign Spread And Its Determinants," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003572, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA. [Downloadable!]
  9. Fernandez, Raquel & Ozler, Sule, 1991. "Debt concentration and secondary market prices," Policy Research Working Paper Series 570, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  10. Barry Eichengreen & Ashoka Mody, 1998. "What Explains Changing Spreads on Emerging-Market Debt: Fundamentals or Market Sentiment?," NBER Working Papers 6408, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Chikako Oka, 2003. "Anticipating Arrears to the IMF: Early Warning Systems," IMF Working Papers 03/18, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  12. McKenzie, David, 2002. "An econometric analysis of IBRD creditworthiness," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2822, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Peter Rowland, 2005. "Buyback Of Colombian Sovereign Debt," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002073, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA. [Downloadable!]
  14. Lisa M. Schineller, 1997. "A nonlinear econometric analysis of capital flight," International Finance Discussion Papers 594, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  15. Raquel Fernandez & Sule Ozler, 1991. "Debt Concentration and Secondary Markets Prices: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," NBER Working Papers 3654, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Edda Zoli, 2004. "Credit Rationing in Emerging Economies' Access to Global Capital Markets," IMF Working Papers 04/70, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  17. Lisa M. Schineller, 1997. "An econometric model of capital flight from developing countries," International Finance Discussion Papers 579, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  18. Hjertholm, Peter, 2001. "Debt Relief and the Rule of Thumb: Analytical History of HIPC Debt Sustainability Targets," Working Papers UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER). [Downloadable!]
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