A Dynamic Factor Analysis of Financial Contagion in Asia
AbstractIn this paper we compared the performance of country specific and regional indicators of reserve adequacy in predicting, out of sample, the balance of payment crisis affecting the South East Asian region during the 1997-98 period. A Dynamic Factor method was used to retrieve reserve adequacy indicators. The empirical findings suggest clear evidence of financial contagion.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Queen Mary, University of London, School of Economics and Finance in its series Working Papers with number 498.
Date of creation: Jul 2003
Date of revision:
Financial contagion; Dynamic factor model;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
- F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2003-07-29 (All new papers)
- NEP-ETS-2003-07-29 (Econometric Time Series)
- NEP-RMG-2003-07-29 (Risk Management)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Massimo Sbracia & Andrea Zaghini, 2001.
"The Role of the Banking System in the International Transmission of Shocks,"
Temi di discussione (Economic working papers)
409, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Massimo Sbracia & Andrea Zaghini, 2003. "The Role of the Banking System in the International Transmission of Shocks," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(5), pages 727-754, 05.
- Cipollini, A. & Kapetanios, G., 2009.
"Forecasting financial crises and contagion in Asia using dynamic factor analysis,"
Journal of Empirical Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 188-200, March.
- Andrea Cipollini & George Kapetanios, 2006. "Forecasting Financial Crises and Contagion in Asia using Dynamic Factor Analysis," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 477, Society for Computational Economics.
- Andrea Cipollini & George Kapetanios, 2008. "Forecasting Financial Crises and Contagion in Asia using Dynamic Factor Analysis," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 014, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics.
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