IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedhwp/wp-99-12.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Banking and currency crises and systemic risk: a taxonomy and review

Author

Listed:
  • George G. Kaufman

Abstract

Many countries have experienced banking and currency crises in recent years. Although these crises appear to share many common causes and consequences, they have generally been analysed by different sets of economists. This paper develops a common framework, applies this framework to analysing recent crises, evaluates the historical evidence, and suggests potential solutions. Governments are identified as one of the major causes of the crises through first providing poorly structured financial guarantees that both increase fragility and misallocate resources, then pursuing unstable macroeconomic policies that produce losses, and finally attempting to conceal the problems as long as possible before being forced to take corrective actions that, at least in the short run, often exacerbate the costs before restoring equilibrium.

Suggested Citation

  • George G. Kaufman, 1999. "Banking and currency crises and systemic risk: a taxonomy and review," Working Paper Series WP-99-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedhwp:wp-99-12
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.chicagofed.org/digital_assets/publications/working_papers/1999/wp99_12.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. George G. Kaufman, 1996. "Bank failures, systemic risk, and bank regulation," Working Paper Series, Issues in Financial Regulation WP-96-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    2. Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Reinhart, Carmen M., 2000. "On crises, contagion, and confusion," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 145-168, June.
    3. Capie, Forrest, 1998. "Can There Be an International Lender-of-Last Resort?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(2), pages 311-325, December.
    4. Andrew D. Crockett, 1997. "Why is financial stability a goal of public policy?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 82(Q IV), pages 5-22.
    5. Charles W. Calomiris & Gary Gorton, 1991. "The Origins of Banking Panics: Models, Facts, and Bank Regulation," NBER Chapters, in: Financial Markets and Financial Crises, pages 109-174, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    7. Barry Eichengreen & Andrew K. Rose & Charles Wyplosz, 1996. "Contagious Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 5681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. McKinnon, Ronald I. & Pill, Huw, 1998. "International Overborrowing: A Decomposition of Credit and Currency Risks," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1267-1282, July.
    9. Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Schmukler, Sergio L., 1999. "What triggers market jitters?: A chronicle of the Asian crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 537-560, August.
    10. Glick, Reuven & Rose, Andrew K., 1999. "Contagion and trade: Why are currency crises regional?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 603-617, August.
    11. repec:idb:wpaper:321 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Ms. Nancy P. Marion & Mr. Robert P Flood, 1998. "Perspectiveson the Recent Currency Crisis Literature," IMF Working Papers 1998/130, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Andrew D. Crockett, 1997. "Why is financial stability a goal of public policy?," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 7-36.
    14. Rojas-Suárez, Liliana & Weisbrod, Steven R., 1996. "Banking Crises in Latin America: Experience and Issues," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 6209, Inter-American Development Bank.
    15. Forrest Capie, 1998. "Can there be an International Lender‐of‐Last‐Resort?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(2), pages 311-325, December.
    16. Flood, Robert & Marion, Nancy, 1999. "Perspectives on the Recent Currency Crisis Literature," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(1), pages 1-26, January.
    17. Ronald I. McKinnon & Huw Pill, 1996. "Credible Liberalizations and International Capital Flows: The "Overborrowing Syndrome"," NBER Chapters, in: Financial Deregulation and Integration in East Asia, pages 7-50, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. George G. Kaufman, 1999. "Helping to Prevent Banking Crises: Taking the "State" Out of State Banks," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 2(01), pages 83-99.
    19. Calomiris, Charles W & Kahn, Charles M, 1991. "The Role of Demandable Debt in Structuring Optimal Banking Arrangements," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(3), pages 497-513, June.
    20. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew & Wyplosz, Charles, 1996. " Contagious Currency Crises: First Tests," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 98(4), pages 463-484, December.
    21. C. H. Furfine, 1999. "Interbank exposures: quantifying the risk of contagion," BIS Working Papers 70, Bank for International Settlements.
    22. R. Glenn Hubbard, 1991. "Financial Markets and Financial Crises," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number glen91-1, May.
    23. Wicker,Elmus, 1996. "The Banking Panics of the Great Depression," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521562614.
    24. A. W. Coats, 1995. "Comment," History of Political Economy, Duke University Press, vol. 27(5), pages 157-161, Supplemen.
    25. Takatoshi Ito & Anne O. Krueger, 1996. "Financial Deregulation and Integration in East Asia," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number ito_96-1, May.
    26. Goodhart, Charles & Delargy, P J R, 1998. "Financial Crises: Plus ca Change, Plus C'est La Meme Chose," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(2), pages 261-287, December.
    27. George G. Kaufman, 1996. "Bank fragility: perception and historical evidence," Working Paper Series, Issues in Financial Regulation WP-96-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    28. Agénor,Pierre-Richard & Miller,Marcus & Vines,David & Weber,Axel (ed.), 1999. "The Asian Financial Crisis," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521770804.
    29. George J. Benston & George G. Kaufman, 1988. "Risk and solvency regulation of depository institutions: past policies and current options," Staff Memoranda 88-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    30. George G. Kaufman, 1998. "Central banks, asset bubbles, and financial stability," Working Paper Series WP-98-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    31. Liliana Rojas-Suárez & Steven R. Weisbrod, 1996. "Banking Crises in Latin America: Experience and Issues," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 6859, Inter-American Development Bank.
    32. George J. Benston & George G. Kaufman, 1998. "Deposit insurance reform in the FDIC Improvement Act: the experience to date," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 22(Q II), pages 2-20.
    33. Bordo, Michael D. & Schwartz, Anna J., 1999. "Under what circumstances, past and present, have international rescues of countries in financial distress been successful?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 683-708, August.
    34. D. E. Moggridge, 1995. "Comment," History of Political Economy, Duke University Press, vol. 27(5), pages 87-91, Supplemen.
    35. Michael D. Bordo & Barry Eichengreen & Jongwoo Kim, 1998. "Was There Really an Earlier Period of International Financial Integration Comparable to Today?," NBER Working Papers 6738, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    36. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Levine, Ross, 1999. "Bank-based and market-based financial systems - cross-country comparisons," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2143, The World Bank.
    37. Ito, Takatoshi & Krueger, Anne O. (ed.), 1996. "Financial Deregulation and Integration in East Asia," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226386713, December.
    38. Craig H. Furfine, 1999. "Interbank exposures: quantifying the risk of contagion," Proceedings 633, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    39. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Sergio L. Schmukler, 1996. "Crisis, contagion, and country funds: effects on East Asia and Latin America," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 232-266.
    40. Catherine L. Mann, 1999. "Market Mechanisms to Reduce the Need for IMF Bailouts," Policy Briefs PB99-04, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    41. George G. Kaufman, 1996. "Bank Failures, Systemic Risk, and Bank Regulation," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 16(1), pages 17-45, Spring/Su.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kolari, James & Glennon, Dennis & Shin, Hwan & Caputo, Michele, 2002. "Predicting large US commercial bank failures," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 361-387.
    2. Campbell, Gareth & Coyle, Christopher & Turner, John D., 2016. "This time is different: Causes and consequences of British banking instability over the long run," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 74-94.
    3. Donald P. Morgan & Kevin J. Stiroh, 1999. "Bond market discipline of banks: is the market tough enough?," Staff Reports 95, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    4. Giannetti, Mariassunta, 2003. "Bank-Firm Relationships and Contagious Banking Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(2), pages 239-261, April.
    5. International Association of Deposit Insurers, 2012. "Transitioning from a blanket guarantee or extended coverage to a limited coverage system," IADI Research Papers 12-03, International Association of Deposit Insurers.
    6. Alexandra Lai, 2002. "Modelling Financial Instability: A Survey of the Literature," Staff Working Papers 02-12, Bank of Canada.
    7. Michael H. Moskow, 2000. "Disruptions in global financial markets: the role of public policy," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 25(Q III), pages 2-8.
    8. Janice Boucher Breuer, 2004. "An Exegesis on Currency and Banking Crises," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(3), pages 293-320, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. George G. Kaufman, 2000. "Banking and currency crisis and systemic risk: lessons from recent events," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 25(Q III), pages 9-28.
    2. Piersanti, Giovanni, 2012. "The Macroeconomic Theory of Exchange Rate Crises," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199653126.
    3. Fabio Filipozzi & Kersti Harkmann, 2010. "The Financial Crisis in Central and Eastern Europe: the Measures and Determinants of the Exchange Market Pressure Index and the Money Market Pressure Index," Research in Economics and Business: Central and Eastern Europe, Tallinn School of Economics and Business Administration, Tallinn University of Technology, vol. 2(2).
    4. Lin, Chin-Shien & Khan, Haider A. & Chang, Ruei-Yuan & Wang, Ying-Chieh, 2008. "A new approach to modeling early warning systems for currency crises: Can a machine-learning fuzzy expert system predict the currency crises effectively?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(7), pages 1098-1121, November.
    5. Marek Dabrowski, 2002. "Currency Crises in Emerging - Market Economis: Causes, Consequences and Policy Lessons," CASE Network Reports 0051, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    6. Marcel Fratzscher, 2003. "On currency crises and contagion," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(2), pages 109-129.
    7. Taylor, Mark & Mody, Ashoka, 2003. "Common Vulnerabilities," CEPR Discussion Papers 3759, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pesenti, Paolo & Roubini, Nouriel, 1999. "Paper tigers?: A model of the Asian crisis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(7), pages 1211-1236, June.
    9. Mody, Ashoka & Taylor, Mark P., 2007. "Regional vulnerability: The case of East Asia," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(8), pages 1292-1310, December.
    10. De Bandt, Olivier & Hartmann, Philipp, 2000. "Systemic risk: A survey," Working Paper Series 35, European Central Bank.
    11. Franklin Allen, 2004. "The Efficiency and Stability of Banks and Markets," Working Paper Research 52, National Bank of Belgium.
    12. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose, 2013. "Financial Crises: Explanations, Types and Implications," CAMA Working Papers 2013-06, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    13. Mardi Dungey & Rene Fry & Vance L. Martin, 2006. "Correlation, Contagion, and Asian Evidence," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 5(2), pages 32-72, Spring/Su.
    14. Chul Park, Yung & Song, Chi-Young, 2001. "Institutional Investors, Trade Linkage, Macroeconomic Similarities, and Contagion of the Thai Crisis," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 199-224, June.
    15. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    16. Komulainen, Tuomas, 2001. "Currency crises in emerging markets : Capital flows and herding behaviour," BOFIT Discussion Papers 10/2001, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    17. Sweta Saxena & Kar-yiu Wong, 1999. "Currency Crises and Capital Control: A Survey," Working Papers 0045, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
    18. Mardi Dungey & Renee Fry & Brenda Gonzalez-Hermosillo & Vance Martin, 2005. "Empirical modelling of contagion: a review of methodologies," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 9-24.
    19. Nagayasu, Jun, 2001. "Currency crisis and contagion: evidence from exchange rates and sectoral stock indices of the Philippines and Thailand," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 529-546.
    20. Sweta C. Saxena, 2004. "The Changing Nature of Currency Crises," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18, pages 321-350, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Devaluation of currency; Foreign exchange; Balance of payments;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedhwp:wp-99-12. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Lauren Wiese (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbchus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.